Fed’s Powell opens door to potential rate cuts at Jackson Hole
Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley reiterated its baseline call that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold this year, despite markets now pricing almost a full rate cut for September.
In a note on Monday, the analysts said last week’s July consumer price index print showed “the firming we expected, but the mix was different: while goods continued to show firmness, they did not pick up, and it was services that showed acceleration.”
The bank highlighted that tariff-exposed goods “continued to be firm,” while the surprise came from services inflation, with airfares and hotel prices rebounding after months of deflationary pressure.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) cautioned that “both core CPI (3.1% y/y for July) and core PCE (we expect at 2.9 y/y) inflation are still at their pace from last year – so further acceleration in goods inflation from tariff effects over the summer would still see inflation remaining well above the Fed’s target.”
The analysts explained that the August jobs report will be critical. If payroll growth accelerates and unemployment holds near 4.2% to 4.3%, “the Fed could likely look through the weakness in the May and June prints.”
However, a sharp slowdown in hiring could push the Fed to “take the view that the labor market is much weaker than anticipated, and restart easing.”
They added that even with inflation above target, “there is also the possibility of a cut from a risk-management perspective.”
Globally, Morgan Stanley said Fed policy remains central: eurozone easing could be delayed if U.S. recession risks fade, while in Japan, stronger U.S. data might tilt the Bank of Japan toward a hike later this year.