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Investing.com -- The Bank of England may have kicked off its cutting cycle, but the pace of easing in 2025 is unlikely to be aggressive, according to analysts at Capital Economics, who say the central bank appears in no rush to move quickly amid conflicting economic signals.
Analyst argues that while the Bank has room to reduce interest rates further after its initial move this summer, a cautious stance is likely to persist due to lingering inflation concerns and fiscal uncertainty.
Core inflation and wage growth remain uncomfortably high despite softening activity indicators.
Markets have priced in a relatively gradual path of rate reductions, and the Bank’s own communications suggest comfort with that trajectory at least for now.
The broader backdrop remains challenging. While the UK economy has avoided recession, growth is sluggish, and the labour market is showing signs of cooling. But persistent price pressures, particularly in services, have complicated the case for faster easing.
Adding to the complexity is the fiscal picture. With the new government expected to make tough decisions on spending and borrowing, gilt markets remain sensitive. Analysts warn that any perceived lack of discipline could feed through to rate expectations by pressuring the pound or long-term yields.
Capital Economics does expect rates to fall gradually through 2025, but not in a straight line. The firm forecasts the Bank Rate to end the year below 4%, down from the current 4.75%, though that path will depend on clearer evidence that inflation is firmly under control.
For now, the Bank appears to be threading a narrow path balancing the need to support a fragile recovery without reigniting inflationary risks.
Investors hoping for a swift return to low rates may need to wait a little longer.