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Investing.com - The dollar was subdued on Monday as traders cautiously gauged chances for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, with crucial U.S. payrolls data due later this week.
Markets in the U.S. were closed for a public holiday, leaving traders assessing regional economic indicators, including factory activity data from Japan and China.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, edged down 0.2% in European hours after ending largely flat last week. Meanwhile, the euro edged up by 0.3% against the dollar.
Markets assess Fed cut bets after PCE inflation
Foreign exchange moves have been limited as investors remain cautious about the potential for Fed easing at the central bank’s upcoming two-day gathering from Sept. 16-17.
Traders see a roughly 90% chance that the Fed will lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at the meeting, according to CME FedWatch tool.
These expectations were reinforced after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the Jackson Hole conference in August that policymakers were prepared to adjust policy if inflation continued to moderate and the labor market showed signs of cooling.
Data released on Friday showed that the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, putting the annual rate at 2.9%, its highest level in five months.
This was in line with expectations, suggesting that U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs were not filtering excessively into consumer prices, despite a recent upside surprise in producer price inflation.
Attention now turns to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for August, which will be crucial to cement bets for a cut before the Fed meeting.
"[T]his week’s jobs data could add to downside for short-term U.S. rates and the dollar. Once again, expect a lot of focus on the back-month revisions, given that only 60% of survey respondents are answering within the first month," analysts at ING said in a note to clients.
(Scott Kanowsky contributed reporting.)