Citi shares its latest outlook on EUR/JPY and EUR/USD

Published 11/03/2025, 08:34
© Reuters.

Citi analysts provided insights into the EUR/JPY currency pair’s movements, noting that the 200-day moving average has historically been a key indicator for this pair.

Currently, the 200-day line is positioned at approximately ¥162.7/€ and is expected to act as a resistance level for the ongoing rebound. Conversely, the downside risk has expanded, with the lower limit of -2σ around ¥154/€.

The currency pair’s neckline, which has been stable since last summer, is at ¥155/€. This level is significant as it represents a 38.2% retracement from the rise that began in 2022. Should the EURJPY drop below this threshold, the analysts forecast a potential decline to a 50% retracement level of around ¥150.0/€.

Furthermore, a continued pattern within the ¥155/€–¥165/€ range could result in a depreciation to ¥145/€, correlating with a 61.8% retracement. Citi analysts have observed a clear loss of long-term upward momentum for the EUR/JPY since last summer, concluding that the uptrend which started in 2020 has ended, and the pair has entered a downtrend.

If the currency pair falls below the critical neckline of ¥155/€, the downside could extend to approximately ¥150/€ over the following months, with a longer-term concern of a drop to around ¥145/€.

Additionally, the analysts highlighted potential risks from US tariffs, which could create a ceiling for the EUR/USD initially around $1.085/€, followed by a possible correction to the vicinity of $1.06/€.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.