Currency markets anticipate volatility amid US tariff deadline on Canada, Mexico

Published 31/01/2025, 13:26
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Investing.com -- The global currency markets are preparing for potential fluctuations as the deadline for U.S. tariff hikes on Canada and Mexico approaches. The Canadian dollar is particularly anticipated to be affected, according to signals from FX options.

President Donald Trump has set the deadline for imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada for Saturday. This move is aimed at pressuring both countries to prevent illegal immigrants and fentanyl from entering the U.S. Trump confirmed on Thursday that he plans to impose these tariffs, but left it unclear whether oil imports would be included.

Implied single-week volatility for the Canadian dollar, covering the period over the weekend, has reached its highest since October 2022. The Mexican peso’s volatility is at its highest since the U.S. elections in November last year. This increased implied volatility suggests traders are preparing for a significant shift in the currency pair, although the direction of this shift is not specified.

The options market, typically used by investors and companies to hedge risk, is showing signs of increasing nervousness in spot currency markets.

Following Trump’s most recent comments, the dollar surged by over 1% against the Canadian dollar within minutes, reaching a near five-year high of C$1.4596, before falling back. On Friday, it was trading around 1.4484 in London.

The Mexican peso has also experienced instability. After dropping by over 1% against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, it was trading around 20.68 per dollar on Friday. Approximately 27% of Mexico’s gross domestic product comes from exports to the U.S., which make up 83% of the country’s total exports. Since Trump’s election victory last year, the peso has fallen more than 1% against the dollar on at least seven occasions.

Meanwhile, volatility in other currencies susceptible to trade tensions, such as the euro and Chinese yuan, has decreased as Trump’s attention remains focused on the Americas.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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