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Dollar Slips Back, Remains Near Four-Month High

ForexAug 13, 2021 08:00
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By Peter Nurse - The dollar slightly retreated in early European trading Friday, but remained near its highest level in four months as elevated inflation levels and a recovering labor market point to the Federal Reserve reining in its hefty monetary stimulus in the near future.

At 2:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded around 0.1% lower at 92.977, just below Wednesday's four-month high of 93.195, and suggesting a weekly gain of 0.2%.

USD/JPY was marginally higher at 110.41, EUR/USD was 0.1% higher at 1.1738, just above Wednesday’s four-month low of 1.1706, GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.3813, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7339.

Thursday’s data releases added to the growing expectations of an asset tapering announcement from the Federal Reserve by the end of 2020. 

The producer price index grew 1% month-on-month in July, up 7.8% on the year, the largest annual increase in more than a decade. Wednesday’s consumer price data may have indicated inflation may be peaking, but this wholesale price data suggested inflationary pressures remain.

Additionally, data Thursday showed that 375,000 initial jobless claims were filed throughout the week, which was lower than the 387,000 claims filed during the previous week, and indicative of a gradually improving labor market.

A number of Fed officials have in recent days come out in support of tapering bond buying in coming months, and while Fed chair Jerome Powell has consistently called for more time the pressure is mounting.

The “Fed may struggle to continue arguing that inflation expectations are 'well anchored',” said analysts at ING, in a note, and it’s likely “that the Fed will be having an increasingly public discussion about tapering, with an announcement possible at the 22 September meeting.” 

USD/TRY rose 0.2% to 8.5696 after Turkey’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 19% on Thursday for a fifth straight month, with soaring consumer inflation providing little room for a cut.

USD/MXN rose 0.1% to 19.965 after Mexico’s central bank raised its key interest rate to 4.5% on Thursday, in an attempt to combat inflation that stands considerably above the bank’s 3% target.

Dollar Slips Back, Remains Near Four-Month High

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