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Croatian central bank governor Boris Vujcic, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, indicated that the ECB could potentially lower interest rates three more times in 2023, despite the Federal Reserve’s slower pace.
This outlook hinges on a significant decrease in core and services inflation. The ECB has already reduced borrowing costs five times since June last year and has signaled openness to further easing, with markets echoing the sentiment of additional cuts.
Vujcic, known for his moderately hawkish stance, emphasized that the forthcoming data, especially regarding services inflation, will be crucial in deciding future rate cuts. Services inflation, a major part of the consumer price basket, has been a primary contributor to the past year’s heightened inflation rates. He mentioned that for the anticipated rate cuts to happen, a slowdown in both core inflation and services inflation is necessary.
Although the Federal Reserve recently suggested it might not rush to cut rates and January’s high inflation rates in the U.S. could mean no rate cuts in 2025, Vujcic stated that the ECB’s decisions could proceed independently. He downplayed concerns about the strong dollar and its implications on longer-term borrowing costs, noting that the current exchange rate levels are not worrisome.
The euro’s depreciation against the dollar by about 7% since autumn, which is less than 3% on a trade-weighted basis, has been considered relatively modest. However, a weaker euro can increase inflation domestically by making imports, particularly energy, more costly, thereby quickly affecting prices.
Vujcic also discussed the ECB’s communication strategy, suggesting that the bank might soon revise its language regarding its policy setting. The current characterization of the policy as "restrictive" could change, especially with another rate cut potentially bringing the deposit rate to 2.5%, a level that might prompt debate among policymakers about its sufficiency in curbing economic activity.
Finally, Vujcic touched on the euro zone’s economic growth, which has been sluggish, with consumption notably weak. Despite this, he believes that conditions are ripe for a consumption-led recovery, bolstered by high savings, income rebounds, and strong employment.
He also cited increased labor market flexibility as a factor that could support consumer confidence and stave off recession fears, noting that some companies are opting to reduce working hours rather than lay off employees.
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