Euro strength expected as ECB leads Fed to neutral policy, ING says

Published 20/08/2025, 11:50
© Reuters.

Investing.com - The euro is poised for continued strength against the dollar through 2026, according to a new analysis from ING that highlights shifting international investment patterns and divergent central bank policies.

Foreign investors purchased €236 billion of eurozone assets in May and June, demonstrating strong international demand for European debt and equity products, ING reports. This follows what the bank describes as a brief "Sell America" trend in April, with the US Treasury yield to dollar correlation now returning to its traditional positive relationship.

ING’s macro team indicates the European Central Bank might deliver one final rate cut in 2023, but expects a "benign" monetary policy environment through late 2025 and 2026. The analysis suggests the Federal Reserve will be "playing catch-up with the ECB" toward neutral monetary policy without requiring a US recession.

The bank forecasts that Germany could achieve growth rates approaching 2% through 2026, driven by fiscal expansion. ING emphasizes that "2% growth in Germany is worth so much more than 2% growth in the US in terms of impact for EUR/USD."

ING predicts the ECB will begin tightening monetary policy in early 2027, "well before the Fed," potentially pushing the EUR/USD exchange rate toward the 1.22-1.25 range by late 2026.

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