Gold bars to be exempt from tariffs, White House clarifies
The Swedish krona (SEK) exhibited signs of a slowdown in its recent rally against the US dollar (USD), following a notable appreciation of over 10% year-to-date.
Analysts from BCA noted that weakened local economic data and an overstretched euro (EUR) strength are contributing factors to the SEK’s loss of momentum.
The Economic Tendency Indicator in Sweden declined to 95.2 in March, with both business and consumer confidence experiencing drops. This indicator is reflective of the SEK’s high sensitivity to global trade dynamics, especially the demand for intermediate goods. The SEK’s performance is closely aligned with global growth trends, which are currently showing signs of deceleration.
BCA strategists have highlighted that the SEK’s robust performance has been largely tied to the EUR’s trajectory. However, they anticipate a potential correction for the EUR, suggesting that its recent rally may have been excessive. In contrast, the USD could see some support from improving financial conditions in the United States, despite geopolitical tensions placing a limit on the currency’s overall gains.
The Riksbank, Sweden’s central bank, maintains a relatively positive stance, deciding to keep policies unchanged despite slightly elevated inflation rates. In response to the current currency dynamics, BCA’s FX strategists have taken a tactical long position in the Norwegian krone (NOK) against the SEK.
As the SEK approaches resistance against the USD, nearing the 10 level, BCA analysts suggest that the currency may be on the cusp of a tactical reversal.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.