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FOREX-Commodity currencies slide on oil, dollar braces for election

Published 30/10/2020, 10:07
© Reuters.
USD/CAD
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USD/NOK
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* Commodity currencies suffer as Brent drops over 10% on the
week
* Euro settles near 1-month low after ECB promises more
support
* Volatility gauges rising ahead of U.S. election
* Yen the safe-haven currency of choice if things get
chaotic
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Marc Jones
LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The main commodity currencies
took another spill on Friday, capping what for some was set to
be their worst week since the March COVID collapse, while
volatility gauges climbed ahead of next week's U.S. election.
With Brent already down 10% for the week and still sliding,
traders seemed ready to sell anything linked to crude.
Russia's rouble dropped 0.5% to near 80 per dollar
RUBUTSTN=MCX on course for a 4% weekly drop. Norway's crown
NOK= was down at 9.57 per dollar after a near 3.5% skid, while
Canada's dollar CAD= was facing its worst week since April.
It came as the global tally of coronavirus cases rose by
over 500,000 for the first time. France and Germany were going
back into almost complete lockdowns and Thursday
saw the United States notch a record 91,000 new cases.
The dollar paused its climb on the euro meanwhile. The
European Central Bank said on Thursday that it will ramp up its
emergency money printing programmes in December euro was near a four-week low at $1.1679. EUR=EBS
"The oil currencies are really on edge because of a pretty
ugly fall in crude," said Saxo Bank's head of FX strategy John
Hardy.
"On the euro, you can peg it to the ECB - it is clear
something big is coming in December - but the music is sounding
very sour in the background with the coronavirus too."
Data later on Friday includes euro zone third-quarter GDP,
which will show an improvement, according to ECB chief Christine
Lagarde, plus October inflation and September unemployment.
In the United States, September personal consumption and
expenditure looms and the Chicago PMI.
The dollar index was flat at 93.889 =USD but within reach
of Thursday's four-week high at 93.916, setting it up for the
biggest weekly gains since the end of September.
Still, uncertainty surrounding Tuesday's U.S. presidential
election and coronavirus fears dominate.
Euro-dollar volatility gauges EURSWO=FN have hit their
highest since March. The risk-sensitive Aussie dollar AUD=D3
last sat at $0.7032, a fraction above a three-month low of
$0.7002 marked overnight.
If the election result is contested by either Donald Trump
or Joe Biden, or the result divides the Senate and the House of
representatives between the two parties, safe-haven currencies
are almost certain to gain, Hardy added.
The greenback edged lower against the Japanese yen at 104.30
yen JPY=EBS , after rallying overnight from a five-week trough
as it benefited from a rebound in U.S. treasury yields and broad
dollar buying.
"104 is a big level for dollar-yen," Hardy said. "Over a
particularly chaotic U.S. election scenario, it will be
interesting to see what happens."

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