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FOREX-Dollar bounces but risks from oil and virus abound

Published 10/03/2020, 03:36
Updated 10/03/2020, 03:45
© Reuters. FOREX-Dollar bounces but risks from oil and virus abound
ESZ24
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US10YT=X
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

* Tracking the coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7

* Dollar recovers but sentiment is fragile

* Policymakers responding to external shocks

* Fed rate cut bets show more downside for greenback

By Stanley White

TOKYO, March 10 (Reuters) - The dollar recovered slightly on

Tuesday from heavy losses against the yen, the euro and the

Swiss franc, supported by hopes for U.S. economic stimulus and

a bounce in Treasury yields.

The greenback started to grind higher as U.S. stock futures

rose after U.S. President Donald Trump said the White House will

hold a news conference on Tuesday about economic measures in

response to the coronavirus outbreak.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin also said the White

House will meet with bank executives this week in a sign the

U.S. government is preparing to roll out more measures to soften

the blow from the spread of the flu-like virus.

However, analysts say it is too early to call a bottom in

the dollar, which was pummelled on Monday after a price war

between Saudi Arabia and Russia triggered the biggest daily rout

in oil prices since the 1991 Gulf War.

"Expectations for a coordinated policy response are

something that is evolving and ultimately this could help," said

Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank

in Sydney.

"But in the short term the dollar is driven by expectations

for U.S. Federal Reserve easing."

The dollar rose 1% to 103.26 yen JPY=EBS , pulling back

from the lowest in more than three years.

Against the euro EUR=EBS , the greenback rose 0.17% to

$1.1410 after falling on Monday to its lowest in more than a

year against the common currency.

The dollar rose 0.39% to 0.9288 Swiss franc CHF=EBS on

Tuesday after three days of heavy selling pushed it to the

lowest in almost five years. Data suggests the Swiss National

Bank is now ramping up its market interventions to weaken its

currency. Against the pound GBP=D3 , the U.S. currency rose 0.35% to

$1.3080.

The dollar gradually accelerated after U.S. stock futures

opened higher ESc1 and Treasury yields US10YT=RR climbed off

record lows.

Oil futures also stabilised somewhat in Asia on Tuesday

after the previous day's dive, as global markets tried to regain

some composure, but many traders warn that recent turmoil has

been so dramatic that risks are still tilted down.

The plunge in crude prices on Monday was yet another jolt to

financial markets, which were already reeling as investors

counted the mounting economic costs of a global coronavirus

epidemic.

In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS was little

changed at 6.9471 per dollar. Chinese officials said growth in

the number of new cases of the coronavirus, which emerged in the

central Chinese province of Hubei late last year, is slowing.

However, its rapid spread in Italy and the United States is

likely to keep investors on edge. Money markets show the Fed, which stunned investors with a

surprise 50 basis point rate cut last week, is likely to ease

policy further in the future. FEDWATCH

The Fed is also injecting cash into the banking system in a

sign of underlying financing stress in the world's largest

economy. Expectations for Fed easing are likely to bring the dollar

and U.S. yields back down, but for the time being on Tuesday the

greenback got a brief respite.

The currencies of oil-producing countries also managed to

rise slightly after a mauling on Monday.

The Russian rouble RUB=EBS rose 1% against the dollar. The

Mexican peso MXN=EBS tacked on 0.4%, while the Norwegian krone

NOK=D3 edged 0.1% higher. The Canadian dollar CAD=D3 gained

0.32%, pulling back slightly from its lowest since 2017.

The Australian AUD=D3 and New Zealand dollars NXD=D3 ,

which are linked to global commodity trade and China's economy,

both fell 0.3% on Tuesday, reflecting the bounce in the

greenback.

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