FOREX-Dollar buoyed as Treasury yields stabilise

Published 13/01/2021, 10:20
© Reuters.
USD/JPY
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DX
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US10YT=X
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* Dollar index trades higher
* Sterling gains
* Euro, Aussie and Kiwi down
* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Ritvik Carvalho
LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Stabilising U.S. Treasury yields
helped the dollar trade back in positive teritory on Wednesday,
though investors remained bearish on the currency's near-term
prospects.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR fell more than
6 basis points from a 10-month high hit on Tuesday, briefly
snuffing out a three-day winning streak for the dollar. They
last traded 2 basis points lower at 1.12%, helping the currency
trade 0.1% higher against its peers. =USD US/
The euro, having earlier made its sharpest daily gain
against the greenback, lost ground to trade 0.15% lower on the
day at $1.2189 EUR=EBS .
Sterling bucked the trend and strengthened against the
dollar to $1.37, having been boosted the previous day by the
Bank of England governor talking down the prospect of negative
interest rates. GBP/
The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell 0.3% and 0.4%
respectively, with the Aussie hitting $0.7745 and the kiwi at
$0.7195. AUD/
The pullback in yields pushed the dollar below 104 Japanese
yen JPY= to trade at 103.79 yen.
Investors maintained their bearish stance on the greenback.
"We continue to think the greenback's downtrend should
remain intact as long as global recovery prospects stay intact,"
said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth
Management in London.
The dollar index =USD was 0.1% higher at 90.14 after
falling 0.5% on Tuesday and is not far above last week's close
to three-year low of 89.206.
"We think that there are really two main reasons for that
(dollar not weakening now)," said Calvin Tse, North America Head
of G10 FX at CitiFX.
"U.S. yields, especially at the back end, have not only
moved higher, they've shot higher. With U.S, yields shooting
higher, it really does two things: 1) it encourages more inflow
into the U.S. buying U.S. rate products and 2) very sharply
moving yield levels tend to not be good for high beta EM FX."
The bond-market sell-off that has driven U.S. yields sharply
higher this year and stalled the dollar's decline was triggered
by Democrats winning control of U.S. Congress at elections in
Georgia last week.
Investors expect that result to usher in huge sums in
government borrowing to fund big-spending stimulus plans and
have figured that higher U.S. rates might make the dollar more
attractive.
Mixed signals from some U.S. Federal Reserve members on how
much longer policy can stay so accommodative also dragged on
Treasuries.
However, strong demand at a $38 billion 10-year auction
overnight and remarks from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren
and Kansas City Fed President Esther George have allayed some of
those concerns ahead of a busy schedule of Fed speakers.
December U.S. inflation figures are also due at 1330 GMT,
with expectations for annual core CPI to hold steady at 1.6%.
Later on Wednesday Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James
Bullard is due to participate in a discussion on monetary policy
at a Reuters Next Virtual Forum at 1430 GMT.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard and Vice Chair
Richard Clarida are also due to speak on Wednesday and the Fed
issues its "Beige Book" of economic indicators at 1900 GMT. Fed
Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on Thursday.


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