FOREX-Dollar cedes some gains but oil collapse likely to support safe-havens

Published 21/04/2020, 01:27
USD/NOK
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CL
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
* Historic collapse in oil futures
* Dollar to remain supported in long term
* FX markets adjust to shifts in global economic risks

By Stanley White
TOKYO, April 21 (Reuters) - The dollar gave up some gains
against the currencies of oil producers after U.S. crude futures
pared some of their massive losses in Asia, but the historic
collapse in energy demand is likely to keep safe-haven assets
well supported.
U.S. crude oil futures plunged into negative pricing for the
first time ever on Monday, dragged by a supply glut and sagging
demand due to the coronavirus pandemic, though they managed to
scrape back into positive territory early Tuesday.
"Oil is off its lows, but a lot of companies are going to
get hit and companies could start to fail," said Shane Oliver,
head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital
Investors in Sydney.
"If share prices have a pullback, the dollar could see some
gains as a safe haven. The only thing that's capping the dollar
is the Federal Reserve has done more quantitative easing than
anyone else."
Factory closures and travel restrictions enforced to slow
the pace of new infections have triggered a collapse in oil
prices, which is drawing money from commodity currencies and
other risk asset to the safety of dollar-denominated assets.
The U.S. dollar edged down slightly against the Canadian
dollar CAD=EBS to C$1.4123 after hitting a two-week high on
Monday.
The greenback fell 0.17% to 23.990 Mexican pesos MXN=D3
following a 1.3% jump on Monday.
Against the Norwegian crown NOK= , the U.S. currency held
steady at 10.4370 after gaining 1.2% on Monday.
The euro held steady as caution set in before data on German
economic sentiment later Tuesday and a meeting of European
Union officials on Thursday to discuss the bloc's response to
the economic chaos caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
The New Zealand dollar was poised to extend gains as
investors continue to cheer the country's decision to ease next
week ease some of the world's strictest lockdown measures taken
to stop the spread of the novel virus. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery CLc1
turned positive and traded at more than $2 per barrel early in
Asia, off a low of -$40 hit in New York trading. The May
contract expires on Tuesday. O/R
The June contract CLc2 , which is more actively traded, was
up 4.8% at $21.41 a barrel.
Investors have been unwinding long positions in front-month
oil futures because U.S. crude storage facilities are nearly at
capacity.
Energy prices are also falling because output cuts agreed
last week by major oil producers have not offset a collapse in
demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
The dollar edged up slightly to 107.70 yen JPY=EBS and
held steady at 0.9682 Swiss francs CHF=EBS as safe-haven flows
continued to support the U.S. currency.
The euro EUR=EBS was quoted at $1.0863. Against the pound,
the common currency was little changed at 87.31 pence
EURGBP=D3 .
Data due later on Tuesday is expected to show German
investor sentiment remained weak in April because of the
coronavirus pandemic.
Members of the EU are struggling to reach consensus on how
to financially support countries hardest hit but the virus, such
as Italy and Spain.
If the EU fails to reach an agreement this week, there could
be more downside risks for the euro, some analysts say.
As coronavirus infections show tentative signs of peaking in
some places, countries are struggling to decide how to re-open
their economies for business.
The New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 traded at $0.6040 on
Tuesday, holding onto the previous day's gains. The Australian
dollar AUD=D3 edged up to $0.6346.
New Zealand will next week ease some of the world's
strictest lockdown measures taken to tackle the novel
coronavirus pandemic, which will allow hundreds of thousands of
people to return to work.

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