FOREX-Dollar nurses losses as epidemic fuels talk of Fed rate cut

Published 26/02/2020, 05:09
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar nurses losses as epidemic fuels talk of Fed rate cut
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* Dollar loses momentum as U.S. relative strength seen

eroding

* Markets bet on Fed rate cuts in H1 this year

* U.S. CDC official urges Americans to prepare for outbreak

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The dollar nursed losses on

Wednesday as rising expectations of a U.S. rate cut and warnings

from U.S. health officials about the spread of the coronavirus

called into question the perceived strength of U.S. financial

assets.

The dollar's index against a basket of six major currencies

.DXY stood at 99.081, little changed on the day but down 0.9%

from a near three-year high of 99.915 hit last week.

Against the yen, the U.S. currency traded at 110.37 yen

JPY= , gaining 0.1% in Asia on Japanese buying before month-end

but still almost two full yen below its 10-month high touched

last Thursday.

The euro fetched $1.08815 EUR= , extending its rebound

since it hit near three-year low of $1.0778 on Thursday.

The dollar had risen until last week as investors had

regarded the United States as less exposed to the coronavirus

and believed its economy more resilient than other major

economies, making U.S. assets a safe harbour.

Growth in China looks set to fall further from a

three-decade low of 6.1% last year after the outbreak caused

massive economic disruptions, while both the euro zone and Japan

are seen on the brink of recession.

Such convictions have started to crumble, however.

A top official at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention (CDC) urged Americans to begin preparing for

coronavirus to spread within the country, while another official

said it was no longer a question of if, but when, the virus

would become a pandemic. As outbreaks started to quickly spread to the Middle East

and Europe, investors no longer saw the U.S. economy immune and

started to bet the U.S. Federal Reserve will have to cut

interest rates to support the U.S. economy.

U.S. money market futures 0#FF: now fully price in a 0.25

percentage point cut by the end of June, compared to about 50%

chance a week ago, although Fed officials have shied away from

indicating a policy move.

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said late on Tuesday the Fed

is "closely monitoring" the escalating coronavirus outbreak but

it is still too soon to gauge if it would require a change in

monetary policy. Still the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield plunged to a record

low near 1.30% US10YT=RR , reducing the dollar's relative yield

attraction.

In contrast to the Fed, the world's other major central

banks such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan

have limited room for easing with their policy rates already at

record lows.

"Markets had been under-estimating the risk of coronavirus

but I think that phase is over by now," said Tatsuya Chiba,

manager of forex at Mitsubishi Trust Bank.

Chiba said the risk-off mood is likely to linger for another

month or so until the market reach the extreme in the opposite

direction by over-estimating the risk.

"I would think we will see the peak of fears when people

become seriously worried about an epidemic in the United

States."

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar stood at $0.6603

AUD=D4 , stuck near Monday's 11-year low of $0.6585.

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