S& P 500 hits all time highs U.S.-Japan trade deal optimism
* Dollar near 1-month low vs yen, euro recovers from 2
1/2-yr low
* U.S. payrolls data next big focus
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
By Hideyuki Sano
TOKYO, Oct 4 (Reuters) - The dollar stepped back on Friday
after a soft U.S. service sector survey stoked worries that
pressure from U.S. trade disputes with China and other countries
could spill over into the broader U.S. economy and tip it into a
recession.
The dollar index =USD fell to 98.905, shedding about 0.8%
after hitting 2 1/2-year high this week.
Against the yen, the U.S. currency eased to 106.91 yen
JPY= , having fallen to one-month low of 106.48 in U.S. trade
on Thursday. The euro stood at $1.0972 EUR= , extending its recovery
from a near 2 1/2-year low of $1.0879 set on Tuesday.
The survey from the U.S. Institute for Supply Management
(ISM) showed its non-manufacturing activity index falling to
52.6 in September, the lowest since August 2016, and far below
expectations of 55.1, from 56.4 in August. Coming on the heels of a similar survey on manufacturing,
announced on Tuesday, showing activity plunging to a more than
10-year low, the weak data increased fears of a U.S. recession.
A gauge of employment in the survey fell to 50.4 last month,
the lowest reading since February 2014, from 53.1 in August.
That does not bode well for the upcoming all-important U.S.
jobs data on Friday, said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at
Sumitomo Mitsui Bank, noting the employment component in the ISM
has had a meaningful correlation with the payrolls data.
"It is reasonable to think the non-farm payrolls figure is
more likely than not to come on the disappointing side. It could
even fall below zero," he said.
The median economists forecast polled by Reuters is a rise
of 145,000 in September.
Heightened worries about the U.S. service sector increased
expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest
rates at the end of this month, undermining the dollar's yield
advantage.
Fed funds rate futures FFX9 FFF0 are almost fully
pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut and a high chance of
another cut by December.
But some market players think rate cuts are far from a done
deal.
"Opinions in markets over whether the Fed needs to cut rates
that much are divided. The dollar is not going to fall sharply
given not everyone thinks the Fed will cut rates this month,"
said Kazushige Kaida, forex manager at State Street.
Elsewhere, sterling traded at $1.2333 GBP=D4 , having risen
to one-week high of $1.2413 on Thursday after the head of a
group of eurosceptic lawmakers in Prime Minister Boris Johnson's
Conservative Party said the government's latest Brexit proposals
offered the possibility of a "tolerable deal."
Still, traders remained unsure whether Johnson's proposal to
replace the Irish border "backstop" was going to morph into a
final Brexit divorce agreement due to mixed messages coming from
both sides.