FOREX-Dollar on defensive as rate cut spooks markets, yields slide

Published 04/03/2020, 03:56
Updated 04/03/2020, 04:00
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar on defensive as rate cut spooks markets, yields slide
US10YT=X
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

* Tracking the coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7

* Fed rate cut fails to stabilise equities

* Coronavirus roils financial markets

* Dollar sold as investors bet more easing is likely

By Stanley White

TOKYO, March 4 (Reuters) - The dollar hovered near

five-month lows versus the yen on Wednesday after the U.S.

Federal Reserve's emergency 50 basis point rate cut sparked more

anxiety about the impact of the coronavirus and sent Treasury

yields tumbling to record lows.

The greenback also traded near the lowest in almost two

years against the Swiss franc as investors flocked to

traditional safe havens as rate cuts were deemed insufficient to

offset risks posed by the global spread of the coronavirus.

The euro was one of the currencies to benefit most from the

broad-based dollar weakness as traders bet the Fed will cut

rates more than the European Central Bank.

Disappointment that a Group of Seven statement on Tuesday

did not lay out a specific response to a global slowdown caused

by the coronavirus has reinforced the view among some investors

that policymakers have fallen behind the curve.

"The G7 and the Fed were not enough to support markets,"

said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho

Securities in Tokyo.

"This Fed rate cut is bad for dollar/yen, partly because

Treasury yields are now very low. The dollar's weakness is

reflected in the euro, because the Fed will likely ease more

than the ECB."

The dollar fell to 106.85 yen JPY=EBS in Asia on

Wednesday, its lowest in almost five months, and then steadied

at 107.26 yen.

The greenback bought 0.9561 Swiss franc CHF=EBS , close to

its weakest level in almost two years.

The Fed surprised investors by cutting rates by 50 basis

points to a target range of 1.00% to 1.25% on Tuesday, two weeks

ahead of a regularly scheduled policy meeting. Interest rate futures traders were pricing in a 60%

probability of a further 25 basis point cut in April, according

to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

The rate cut failed to arrest a sell-off in U.S. equities

and sent benchmark 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR crashing

to a record low of 0.906%, further reducing the appeal of the

dollar.

The new coronavirus that emerged in China late last year has

spread to more than 60 countries and claimed more than 3,000

lives. Travel restrictions and factory closures aimed at halting

the spread of the virus raise the risk of a global recession.

Sentiment also took at a hit after G7 finance ministers

issued a statement on Tuesday that stopped short of calling for

new government spending or coordinated central bank interest

rate cuts. In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS jumped to a

six-week high of 6.9400 per dollar in another sign of the U.S.

currency's weak bias.

The yuan shrugged off data showing China's services sector

crumbled to its weakest on record in February, but the grim

numbers offer a sign of the economic impact of the spread of the

flu-like virus. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar AUD=D3 pared gains to

trade at $0.6492 as the weak Chinese data took some of the shine

off the Aussie, whose economy is highly dependant on trade with

China.

Broad-based selling in the U.S. dollar encouraged euro bulls

to aggressively buy the common currency.

The euro EUR=EBS last traded at $1.1166, close to a

one-month high reached on Tuesday.

Against sterling, the euro EURGBP=D3 traded at 87.10

pence, close to the highest in almost four months.

Sterling GBP=D3 bought $1.2831, holding onto modest gains

from the previous session.

Uncertainty about trade talks between Britain and the

European Union is weighing on sterling, along with growing

expectations for UK interest rate cuts.

Money markets are now fully pricing in a cut of 25 basis

points on March 26 when the Bank of England next meets.

Almost two cuts are priced by the end of 2020, compared to

none a few weeks ago. BOEWATCH=

(Editing by Lincoln Feast and Jacqueline Wong)

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