FOREX-Euro falls after ECB holds fire, dollar jumps as spreads widen

Published 12/03/2020, 14:12
Updated 12/03/2020, 14:18
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro falls after ECB holds fire, dollar jumps as spreads widen
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* Euro falls after ECB decides not to cut rates

* Dollar jumps, analysts cite swap spread rise

* Safe havens like the yen and franc remain in demand

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Recasts after ECB announcement, updates prices)

By Saikat Chatterjee

LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) - The euro weakened on Thursday

after the European Central Bank announced more stimulus to fight

the coronavirus impact but did not lower interest rates, with

the single currency falling to the day's low as investors rushed

for dollars.

The ECB approved fresh stimulus measures on Thursday to help

the euro zone economy cope with the growing cost of the

coronavirus epidemic, but kept interest rates unchanged in a

move that may disappoint financial markets. The euro, down before the announcement, jumped briefly to

$1.13 but then skidded to as low as $1.1198, down 0.5% on the

day. EUR=EBS

Market watchers had expected an ECB cut to the main deposit

rate of 10 bps.

A press conference is due at 1330 GMT in

Frankfurt. The dollar rebounded sharply after the ECB announcement, and

was last up 0.4% against a basket of currencies at 96.613.

Analysts said the dollar had rallied as swap spreads on

major currencies blew out and investors scrambled for the U.S.

currency.

"It's all about dollar liquidity, the cross-curency basis

swap has blown out. I would assume it's banks/corporates driven.

We are moving to the next phase of the selloff," said Kenneth

Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale.

Safe-haven currencies remained in demand on Thursday with

the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc leading gains. The dollar

had earlier struggled after U.S. President Donald Trump banned

travel from Europe to stem the coronavirus.

With the latest ban posing a fresh disruption to the global

economy, traders were also disappointed by the lack of broad

measures in Trump's plan to fight the pathogen, prompting

traders to bet on further aggressive easing by the Federal

Reserve.

Money markets are now expecting another 100 bps of easing

from the Fed by next week taking the benchmark policy interest

rates to zero after a hefty half point rate cut last week.

"The market was looking for more," said Moh Siong Sim,

currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore.

The Japanese currency JPY=EBS climbed 0.5% versus the

greenback to 103.98 yen, below a four-year high of 101.28 hit on

Monday. The Swiss franc CHF=EBS climbed but then fell and was

last down 0.2% at $0.94.

Risk aversion was the dominant theme in currency markets on

Thursday as Asian and European stock markets were a sea of red,

forcing traders to stampede out of currencies heavily geared to

the global economy such as the Norwegian crown NOK= and the

Australian dollar. AUD=

Trump announced on Wednesday a ban on travellers from 26

European countries entering the United States for a month.

He unveiled economic steps to counter the virus but his

address from the Oval Office was light on medical measures

beyond assurances that "the virus has no chance against us".

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