FOREX-Euro on defensive ahead of ECB meeting amid worries about growth

Published 09/09/2019, 01:24
Updated 09/09/2019, 01:30
FOREX-Euro on defensive ahead of ECB meeting amid worries about growth
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

* Central banks are easing policy to support growth

* U.S.-China trade war weighs on global economy

* Brexit uncertainty is a risk to sterling

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The euro was on the back foot on

Monday ahead of a European Central Bank meeting later this week

at which policymakers are expected to deliver new stimulus to

bolster a flagging regional economy.

Heightened expectations for an ECB easing come as other

global central banks move to loosen the monetary spigot with the

People's Bank of China on Friday taking steps to boost lending.

Adding to the calls for central bank easing are signs the

global economy is struggling with China's exports unexpectedly

falling in August, data released on Sunday showed. The dollar was confined to a narrow range versus the yen as

traders weighed the prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts against

their demand for safe-haven assets.

Among Asian currencies, the yuan got off to a subdued start

after the soft trade data.

"The Chinese numbers play to the view that if we don't see

progress in U.S.-China trade talks, then further easing will be

necessary, including tolerance of a weaker yuan," said Ray

Attrill, head of foreign exchange strategy at National Australia

Bank in Sydney.

"The ECB is the big game in town globally this week, and the

market is more comfortable with the Federal Reserve cutting

rates, so I think the market is probably risk neutral."

Sterling edged lower as political uncertainty about how the

UK would complete its divorce with the European Union by an Oct.

31 deadline dented appetite for the pound.

Traders are likely to take their cues from the ECB as major

central banks line up support measures for a weakening global

economy.

The euro was little changed at $1.10235 EUR=EBS early in

Asian trading after falling 0.1% on Friday.

Sterling traded at $1.2288 GBP=D3 after falling 0.4% on

Friday.

The dollar index =USD against a basket of six major

currencies rose 0.03% to 98.447.

The dollar traded at 106.96 yen JPY=EBS , up 0.04% from

Friday.

Trading could be subdued as one of the strongest typhoons to

hit Tokyo in recent years made landfall on Monday, cancelling

scores of train lines. The European Central Bank is all but certain to approve new

stimulus measures on Thursday to boost an ailing economy, but

the composition of its package is far from clear as a rift has

opened between hawkish northern European policymakers and doves

from the south. Data due later Monday on German exports could provide

further clues about the health of the global economy.

Policymakers are rushing to bolster growth as a wide-ranging

dispute between the United States and China over trade policy

drags into a second year, increasing the risk of recession.

In the offshore market, the dollar CNH=D3 rose 0.05% to

7.1076 yuan.

China's central bank said on Friday it was cutting the

amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the third

time this year, releasing 900 billion yuan ($126.35 billion) in

liquidity to shore up the flagging economy. The PBOC has now slashed the ratio seven times since early

2018.

China's exports unexpectedly fell in August as shipments to

the United States slowed sharply, pointing to further weakness

in the world's second-largest economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to act "as

appropriate" to sustain the economic expansion in the world's

biggest economy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Friday in Zurich,

confirming expectations for a rate cut at the Fed's next policy

decision on Sept. 18.

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