FOREX-Euro surges as investors see ECB done with stimulus

Published 13/09/2019, 10:02
FOREX-Euro surges as investors see ECB done with stimulus
EUR/USD
-
DE10YT=RR
-

* Yen falls, Chinese yuan rises on Sino-US trade deal

optimism

* Sterling jumps as investors cut short positions

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Olga Cotaga

LONDON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The euro rocketed to a 17-day

high against the dollar on Friday as German government bond

yields surged on the back of investors thinking the European

Central Bank was done stimulating the ailing euro zone economy

after cutting rates on Thursday.

The central bank cut its deposit interest rate by 10 basis

points to a record low of minus 0.5% and said it would restart

bond purchases at a rate of 20 billion euros a month from Nov. 1

for an indefinite time.

The revived bond purchases exceeded many expectations

because they are set to run until "shortly before" the ECB

raises interest rates. Given that markets do not expect rates to

rise for nearly a decade, such a formulation suggests that

purchases could go on for years, possibly through most of

Christine Lagarde's term leading the bank. As he announced the monetary stimulus package, ECB President

Mario Draghi also emphasized on the importance of fiscal

stimulus and structural reforms, essentially saying that only a

combination of both monetary and fiscal stimulus could revive

European growth.

The ECB "gave the impression to the market that we're pretty

much done" with monetary policy stimulus, said Vasileios

Gkionakis, global head of fx strategy at Lombard Odier, adding

that "there's no denial that the ECB delivered on all fronts."

"The main message (from the ECB) is that we've seen the

bottom in the euro/dollar," Gkionakis said.

The euro was up 0.3% at $1.1096 GBP=D3 after jumping

earlier to $1.11095, its highest since Aug. 27. The 10-year

German Bund yield surged to a six-week high of negative 0.48%

DE10YT=RR .

The day before, the common currency briefly went below

$1.10. Deutsche Bank had projected the euro would fall below

$1.10 and now that it had, the German bank said it was now

neutral on the common currency.

"We think the risks on the euro are now turning more

two-sided," said George Saravelos, Deutsche's currency

strategist, in a note, adding he was "not willing to turn

bullish just yet."

"We believe EUR/USD will remain stuck around 1.10," he said.

The dollar rose overnight against the Japanese yen - after

Donald Trump said he would not rule out an interim trade pact

with China - then gave back some of those gains. Washington and Beijing are preparing for new rounds of talks

aimed at curbing their trade war, which has dragged on for more

than a year, roiling financial markets and threatening to push

other economies into recession. The yen, widely considered a

safe-haven currency, tends to rise during times of heightened

economic or market stress and vice versa.

The greenback was last down 0.1% at 107.99 versus the yen

JPY=EBS after surging to a six-weeks high of 108.265.

The Chinese yuan also strengthened in the offshore market to

a four-week high of 7.0330 versus the dollar on the back of

Sino-U.S. trade optimism CNH=EBS . Dollar/yuan was last down

0.3% at 7.0752.

"We've managed to scale back our pessimism about U.S.-China

trade talks, which is a supportive factor for now," said Takuya

Kanda, general manager of research at Gaitame.com Research

Institute in Tokyo.

Elsewhere, receding fears of a no-deal Brexit and dollar

weakness pushed the pound to a seven-week high of $1.2435

GBP=D3 on Friday. Investors trimmed their expectations of a

no-deal Brexit after Northern Ireland's largest political party

said it may agree on certain European Union rules after Britain

exist the EU, even though it later denied those comments.

Against the euro, the gains were more constrained, with

euro/sterling last down 0.5% at 89.25 pence EURGBP=D3 .

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