FOREX-Sterling, Norwegian crown extend gains with Brexit deal in sight

* Pound extends gains as Brexit deal expected on Thursday
* Trade-sensitive currencies rise: Norwegian crown, Aussie
dollar,
offshore yuan up
* Dollar down as Brexit hopes overshadow stimulus
uncertainty
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

(There will be no London-based Forex market report on Dec 25
due to the Christmas holiday)
By Yoruk Bahceli
AMSTERDAM, Dec 24 (Reuters) - Sterling and trade-sensitive
currencies including the Norwegian crown and Aussie dollar
extended gains on Thursday as Britain and the European Union
appeared on the cusp of striking a trade deal, raising hopes the
United Kingdom can avoid a turbulent economic departure at the
end of the year.
The dollar was on the back foot in holiday-thinned trading
as hopes for an agreement that would protect about $1 trillion
in annual cross-channel trade from tariffs and quotas sapped
demand for the safest assets.
The British pound extended gains and rose as high as
$1.3620, after Ireland's foreign minister said a deal was
expected on Thursday. As of 1210 GMT it was up 0.7%
at $1.3590 with potential to rise to a 2-1/2 year high above
$1.3625 once the deal is announced. GBP=D3
The pound also rose to a three-week high against the euro at
89.54 pence. EURGBP=D3
Sources in London and Brussels said a deal was close as
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a late-night
conference call with his senior ministers and negotiators pored
over reams of legal trade texts.
"We have to assume that the FX market largely has priced in
a 'deal' outcome," Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX and commodity
research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, told clients.
But Leuchtmann noted that the pound's rise since Wednesday,
when news of a deal first emerged, had not been "spectacular".
While the British currency may strengthen a bit further in
later trade and sessions, he says a rally beyond 87 pence
against the euro is unjustified.
Across other major European currencies, Norway's crown
rallied, having risen as much as 0.4% against the euro at
10.5045 earlier. EURNOK=D3
Andreas Steno Larsen, global chief FX and rates strategist
at Nordea in Copenhagen, noted the UK is Norway's biggest
destination for exports, making the currency "super sensitive"
to Brexit news.
Sweden's crown was also up about 0.2%. EURSEK=D3
Trade sensitive currencies also rose in other regions, with
the Australian dollar last up nearly 0.3% to 76.00 U.S. cents
AUD=D3 . The offshore yuan was up 0.2% at $6.5186. CNH=EBS
The euro was last unchanged at $1.21915 after a modest rise
earlier. EUR=EBS
Brexit hopes overshadowed any concern from U.S. President
Donald Trump's demand for changes to a coronavirus aid bill,
effectively threatening a government shutdown next week.
The safe-haven dollar slid further against a basket of
currencies on Thursday and was last down 0.2% to 90.239 =USD .
"Republicans and Democrats agreeing on the deal is positive
news, and now the delay gives you an upside option of getting
more – the (stimulus) bill is unlikely to get worse," said Lauri
Halikka, fixed income and FX strategist at SEB in Stockholm.
"So the near-term uncertainty is probably compensated by a
chance of getting a larger bill. Further, Biden gets inaugurated
in less than a month's time, so the delay is unlikely to get any
longer than that in the worst case."
The dollar index has lost more than 6% this year as
investors bet the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep its monetary
policy ultra-accommodative and fiscal stimulus would speed an
economic recovery in 2021.
Expectations for further declines in the dollar support
stock markets and emerging-market currencies. Even if stimulus is not approved and the dollar benefits
from safe-haven buying in the shorter term, it will still weaken
to $1.23 per euro over the course of 2021, according to Jane
Foley, Rabobank's head of FX strategy.
The yen, another safe-haven, was down about 0.1% at 103.680
per dollar JPY=EBS .
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Thursday the
central bank was ready to take new steps to make its massive
monetary easing more effective and sustainable.