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FOREX-Yuan hits 11-year low, yen rises on rush to safe-havens

Published 22/08/2019, 06:39
© Reuters.  FOREX-Yuan hits 11-year low, yen rises on rush to safe-havens
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

* Markets waiting for Powell's speech at Jackson Hole

* Fed reluctant to embark on easing cycle - Fed minutes

* Futures show rate cut expectations remain high

* Brexit confusion undermines sterling

(Adds new low for Chinese yuan)

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Aug 22 (Reuters) - China's yuan fell to an 11-year

low against the dollar on Thursday due to worries about an

economic slowdown, prompting Chinese state-owned banks to

support the currency in the forwards market.

The yuan's fall, combined with declines in Hong Kong stocks

on concerns about protests in the city, pushed the antipodean

dollars lower and boosted the yen against major crosses in

so-called risk-off trades.

Other currencies were locked in tight ranges ahead of U.S.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole

on Friday, which will be closely scrutinised after an inversion

in the Treasury yield curve highlighted the risk of a U.S.

recession.

Expectations for additional rate cuts are high, and U.S.

President Donald Trump's vocal calls for aggressive monetary

easing could put the Fed in a bind.

"Some investors like commodity trading advisors have linked

the downward move in the yuan and Chinese stocks to selling

cross yen," said Yukio Ishizuki, foreign exchange strategist at

Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

"The bigger concern is what Powell says tomorrow. He doesn't

want to give away too much, but there is already a sense that

Trump is doing a lot to decide monetary policy."

At the Fed's last meeting in July, the U.S. central bank cut

interest rates for the first time in a decade to 2.00-2.25%. The

Fed next meets Sept. 17-18.

In onshore trading, the yuan CNY=CFXS fell to 7.0752 per

dollar, its weakest since March 2008, before recovering slightly

to 7.0732. In offshore trade the dollar CNH= rose 0.29% to

7.0872 yuan.

Major Chinese state-owned banks were seen supporting the

yuan by receiving dollar/yuan swaps, traders told Reuters.

The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday warned

governments against trying to weaken their currencies through

monetary easing or market intervention. This could place unwanted attention on the yuan after the

U.S. Treasury declared China a currency manipulator in an

escalation of the U.S.-China trade war.

China is also in the spotlight as a series of protests in

Hong Kong calling for greater democratic freedoms have become

the biggest challenge to Chinese rule of the city since it

reverted from British colonial rule in 1997.

The dollar held steady at 106.43 yen JPY=EBS following a

0.36% gain on Wednesday, its biggest since Aug. 13.

Against the Swiss franc CHF=EBS , the dollar traded at

0.9828, close to a two-week high of 0.9831.

The Australian dollar AUD=D3 fell 0.32% to $0.6761 and

declined 0.47% to 71.95 yen AUDJPY= .

The New Zealand dollar NZD= skidded to $0.6372, the lowest

since January 2016, and slumped 0.66% to 67.84 yen NZDJPY= .

Minutes from the Fed's last meeting released on Wednesday

showed policymakers were deeply divided over whether to cut

interest rates but were united in wanting to signal they were

not on a preset path to more cuts. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RJR gained after

the minutes, but interest rate futures are pricing in a 100%

probability of a Fed rate cut at its September meeting, a 75%

chance of an additional cut in October, and a 48% likelihood of

another cut in December, the CME's FedWatch tool shows.

The Fed and other central banks are cutting interest rates

to contain a global economic slowdown caused by a prolonged

trade war between the United States and China.

"Yields are supportive of the dollar for now, but this may

not last after Powell's speech," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior

foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

"Additional rate cuts are thoroughly priced in. If Powell

sounds slightly hawkish, stocks could sell off, which would hurt

the dollar against safe-haven currencies like the yen."

Sterling traded a tad lower at 91.46 pence per euro

EURGBP= , on course for its second day of losses, as

uncertainty about Britain's divorce from the European Union

weighed on the pound.

Against the greenback, sterling GBP=D3 was little changed

at $1.2127.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday there

would be no renegotiation of the terms for Britain's exit from

the EU. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to meet

Macron in Paris on Thursday.

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