Goldman Sachs sees USD/JPY rally prompting intervention concerns

Published 04/11/2025, 11:36
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Investing.com - The USD/JPY currency pair has climbed nearly 5% over the past month after a period of summer stability, reaching levels not seen since January, according to Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).

The significant move has generated increased interest in Japanese yen shorts while simultaneously triggering verbal intervention from Japan’s newly appointed Finance Minister, Goldman Sachs reports in its currency analysis.

Goldman Sachs notes that if direct market operations were to occur, Japan’s Ministry of Finance likely has sufficient capacity to match the scale of its most recent interventions in 2022 and 2024, with such efforts typically proving most effective following a dovish Federal Reserve, a hawkish Bank of Japan, or supportive economic data releases.

The investment bank observes that the typical prerequisites for intervention have not yet materialized, including a rapid move to notably weak levels, dislocation from fundamentals, and more forceful verbal intervention, though this assessment would change if USD/JPY quickly reached the 161-162 range.

The yen’s recent performance appears well correlated with a repricing of fiscal risk premium and, more recently, near-term Bank of Japan policy expectations, according to Goldman Sachs’ analysis.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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