HSBC lowers USD/JPY forecast to 148 as Japan election adds uncertainty

Published 10/10/2025, 14:30
© Reuters.

Investing.com - HSBC has adjusted its forecast for the USD/JPY exchange rate, now expecting a more gradual decline following Japan’s recent election results, according to a research note released Wednesday.

The global banking giant maintains its base case that the USD/JPY will fall modestly over time, but has revised its year-end target to 148, up from its previous forecast of 144. HSBC also adjusted its first-quarter 2026 projection to 144, compared to its earlier estimate of 142.

The bank had already recalibrated its expectations for the Japanese yen’s recovery following the US-Japan trade deal, particularly in light of Japan’s USD550 billion investment pledge, as noted in its September 10 report titled "JPY: Hindered."

HSBC cited "heightened uncertainty in the near term from this election result" as the primary factor suggesting a more gradual decline in the currency pair. The adjustment reflects a smoother forecast trajectory while maintaining the bank’s mid-2026 target of 142.

The revised outlook comes as currency markets continue to digest the implications of Japan’s election outcome and its potential impact on monetary policy and economic relations between the United States and Japan.

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