JPM anticipates weaker USD amid Asian FX moves

Published 06/05/2025, 11:36
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Investing.com -- JPMorgan released a note regarding the performance of the US dollar (USD), highlighting that their bearish outlook is based on fundamental factors. The recent appreciation of Asian currencies this week has led to speculation about a possible foreign exchange (FX) accord being part of ongoing trade negotiations.

The bank noted that the heavy investment in US assets by net international investment position (NIIP) surplus Asian exporters, combined with Chinese policy signaling lower USD/CNY fixings, suggests that the USD is likely to weaken against Asian currencies.

JPMorgan’s analysis indicates that should the trend of Asian currency strengthening continue, it would support their positive outlook for the Euro against the US dollar (EUR/USD) and benefit cyclical currencies in the region, such as the Australian dollar (AUD). They also expect that lower oil prices would enhance the performance of energy-importing countries. However, the Japanese yen (JPY) is predicted to underperform when compared to these cyclical currencies.

Reflecting on past currency trends, JPMorgan pointed out that in 2019, high-beta currencies, particularly those in emerging markets (EM) in Asia, saw significant gains. This outperformance occurred between the announcement of a US-China meeting and the actual event itself, suggesting a pattern that might be observed again in the context of current developments.

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