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Investing.com -- The Philippine Peso (PHP) typically experiences a slight positive trend in July, with an average appreciation of about 14 basis points on a NEER basis over the past decade.
This seasonal strength is commonly associated with the start of the new school term toward the end of July, with school fee deadlines usually falling around mid-July. The pattern is supported by monthly remittance data, which shows a significant increase in June followed by a peak in July, though still approximately 10% below the December spike.
The strength of the PHP could potentially create upside risk to USD remittances as overseas Filipinos may need to send more dollars to match their peso-denominated expenses.
However, this July strength typically reverses during the remainder of the third quarter. This reversal pattern may be more pronounced this year due to large retail RPGB (Retail Philippine Government Bond) maturities, which total PHP 805 billion in August-September, especially if participation from overseas Filipinos in new bond issuances declines.
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