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Investing.com - The strong bullish U.S. dollar consensus was proven wrong in the first quarter of 2005, and Bank of America thinks traders should still sell dollar rallies as the year progresses.
At 07:05 ET (11:05 GMT), the EUR/USD pair rose 0.4% to $1.0795, up over 4% over the course of the year to date.
The year started with the consensus very bullish on the dollar and very bearish on the euro, analysts at Bank of America Securities said, in a note dated March 27.
The greenback was at an-all-time high in trade-weighted terms-both nominal and real, while long dollar positioning was also at an all-time-high, according to the bank’s estimates
The market was “cherry-picking” growth-friendly U.S. policies, including tax cuts, deregulation and government efficiency, discounted stagflationary policies, such as tariffs and tightening of migration, or recessionary policies, such as government spending cuts.
At the same time, market expectations for any EU reforms in response to the substantial underperformance since the pandemic and the challenges from the new U.S. policies were extremely low, if any.
“All this suggested to us substantially underpriced positive EUR/USD risks for the year,” Bank of America said.
Indeed, concerns about the U.S. economy slowing from policy uncertainty and fiscal policy tightening, and recent optimism from Germany’s “bazooka” fiscal stimulus and EU defense spending have supported EUR/USD.
“These EU reforms are much more than even our out-of-consensus optimistic baseline was expecting and we recently moved our EUR/USD forecasts even higher, to 1.15 from 1.10 by end-2025, and to 1.20 from 1.15 by end-2026,” Bank of America said.
“The U.S. dollar could still strengthen short-term on high tariffs, but we remain bullish EUR/USD for the year on stagflationary US policies and historic EU reforms.”