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Investing.com -- The euro reached UBS’s September target of 1.16 this week, supported by weaker U.S. inflation data published earlier in the week. The currency’s movement comes as the European Central Bank meeting concludes and market attention shifts back to U.S.-EU trade negotiations.
With only three weeks remaining until the U.S. administration’s July 9 trade deadline, UBS anticipates slow progress in negotiations, though likely enough to prevent a worst-case scenario. A more serious trade dispute could put pressure on the euro, but the bank’s base case predicts moderate improvement over time.
UBS analysts will monitor potential European fiscal spending announcements, particularly from Germany, which could influence the currency’s trajectory. Upcoming data releases in the Eurozone, including final Consumer Price Index figures, are not expected to substantially alter the current balance of risks.
Market focus is now turning to Federal Reserve communications as participants assess the path of U.S. monetary policy. The recent weakness in U.S. inflation data has provided support for the EUR/USD exchange rate.
UBS continues to forecast further upside for the euro in the months ahead, building on the currency’s recent momentum. The bank’s outlook suggests continued strength beyond the recently achieved 1.16 level against the U.S. dollar.
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