UBS expects USD/CHF to trade firmly below 0.80 in the long term

Published 02/07/2025, 10:24
© Reuters.

Investing.com - The Swiss franc has demonstrated resilience throughout most of the year, maintaining its strength against the dollar despite the approaching July 9 deadline when the 90-day grace period for US tariffs expires, according to UBS analysis.

Since April’s significant market movements, the USD/CHF exchange rate has gradually declined below 0.80, while EUR/CHF remains range-bound between 0.930 and 0.945. The Swiss National Bank reduced interest rates by 25 basis points to 0% in June and could potentially implement negative rates if the Swiss franc strengthens further or if other central banks make additional rate cuts.

UBS analysts expect USD/CHF to trade firmly below 0.80 in the long term, though they note the Swiss franc’s total return potential against the dollar is not compelling due to the USD’s still-high carry. The rate differential between the Eurozone and Switzerland remains elevated, with the European Central Bank largely finished with its rate-cutting cycle.

The Swiss franc has recently appreciated against several currencies amid market tensions, though UBS suggests some of these gains may not be sustainable. The bank views current levels as an opportunity to gain exposure to the British pound, Scandinavian currencies, or the Australian dollar, all of which UBS expects to outperform the Swiss franc in the second half of 2025 in terms of both spot price and carry.

For investors considering USD hedging, UBS recommends it primarily to reduce volatility and manage tail risks, while cautioning that over the longer term, hedging costs are likely to exceed expected spot returns.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.