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Investing.com -- UBS has updated its forecast for the EUR/USD currency pair, anticipating a consolidation period followed by a gradual increase over the next few years.
The financial services firm now predicts the EUR/USD will stabilize at 1.06 by June 2025, before climbing to 1.10 and eventually reaching 1.12 as the year progresses into 2026. UBS suggests that technical support for the currency pair lies around 1.06 and 1.02, with resistance expected near the 1.10 and 1.12 levels.
The revised outlook comes in response to Germany’s plans to launch a substantial economic stimulus package. The measures include a €500 billion fund for infrastructure and a revamp of borrowing rules to boost government investment.
As a result, UBS has upgraded its German GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, although the full impact of these changes may not be evident until a year from now.
UBS also anticipates that the German fiscal expansion will have modest positive effects on growth throughout the European Union and its surrounding region. However, it notes that other European countries may not have the capacity for similar large-scale fiscal initiatives.
The implications of Germany’s fiscal boost are expected to influence government bond yields and the euro, especially with Eurozone inflation proving to be more persistent than initially anticipated. UBS predicts that European yields are likely to remain above 2%.
In contrast, the United States is facing growth concerns as the new administration’s focus on tariffs and spending cuts overshadows other policies that could potentially stimulate growth. UBS indicates that the previous optimism for US growth into 2025 is waning, and any significant threats to this outlook could result in further weakening of the U.S. dollar.
Switzerland-based research firm initially expected a reversal of dollar strength to occur in the second half of 2025, but this may happen sooner if the Federal Reserve opts for additional rate cuts.