USD/BRL: BCA recommends underweight position on Brazilian real

Published 12/08/2025, 12:02
© Reuters.

Investing.com - BCA Research has maintained its underweight recommendation on the Brazilian real (BRL) on Monday, citing persistent structural and cyclical challenges facing the currency. The research firm specifically suggested a short BRL/MXN position to capitalize on Mexico’s relative economic resilience.

The firm’s analysis indicates the Brazilian real is likely to underperform emerging market currency peers and move sideways against a depreciating U.S. dollar. BCA attributes this projected weakness to Brazil’s large and persistent fiscal and current account deficits, which continue to pressure the currency.

BCA Research emphasized that structural political constraints in Brazil make meaningful fiscal tightening and debt stabilization unlikely. These limitations leave the currency particularly exposed to market pressures and investor sentiment shifts, according to the firm’s assessment.

The research note highlighted that short-term domestic and external macroeconomic forces point to a sharp economic slowdown in Brazil. This anticipated deceleration raises concerns about potential portfolio outflows from the country.

BCA concluded that these combined factors would likely place additional downward pressure on the Brazilian real, reinforcing the firm’s recommendation for investors to maintain an underweight position on the currency while favoring the Mexican peso as a relative value play within Latin American currencies.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.