* Trump says Iran may have shot down U.S. drone by mistake
* Fed sees case building for interest rate cuts this year
* Gulf producers to hold output within OPEC target in
July-sources
(Adds settlement prices, latest Trump comments, Gulf production
to hold within OPEC target in July)
By Jessica Resnick-Ault
NEW YORK, June 20 (Reuters) - Oil soared more than 5% on
Thursday after Iran shot down a U.S. military drone, raising
fears of a military confrontation between Tehran and Washington.
Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut
interest rates at its next meeting, stimulating growth in the
world's largest oil-consuming country, and a drop in U.S. crude
inventories also supported prices. EIA/S
"It's a confluence of events: there's a looming easing cycle
which is going to hit the dollar and prop up commodity prices
and there are also the tensions with Iran," said John Kilduff, a
partner at Again Capital Management in New York.
The security premium built into oil prices could rise
further as tensions between the U.S. and Iran heat up, he said.
Brent crude LCOc1 , the global benchmark, settled up $2.63,
or 4.3% at $64.45 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
CLc1 rose $2.89, or 5.4%, to $56.65 a barrel.
Brent's premium over WTI WTCLc1-LCOc1 narrowed to its
lowest since April. The move came as U.S. crude rose more
quickly than Brent due to the tailwind provided by potential
Federal Reserve policy, said Bob Yawger, director of futures at
Mizuho in New York.
U.S. President Donald Trump played down Iran's downing of a
U.S. military drone, saying he suspected it was shot by mistake
and that "it would have made a big difference" to him if the
remotely-controlled aircraft had been piloted. the comments appeared to suggest Trump was not eager
to escalate the latest in a series of incidents with Iran, he
also warned that: "This country will not stand for it."
Tehran said the unarmed Global Hawk surveillance drone was
on a spy mission over its territory but Washington said it was
shot down over international airspace.
Tension has been rising in the Middle East, home to over 20%
of the world's oil output, after attacks on two tankers near the
Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for oil supplies. Washington
blamed Tehran for the tanker attacks. Iran denied any role.
Concern about slowing economic growth and a U.S.-China trade
dispute has pulled oil lower in recent weeks. Brent reached a
2019 high of $75 in April.
The prospect of further rate cuts could prove the more
significant factor for oil, said Petromatrix analyst Olivier
Jakob, should Iran-U.S. tension not escalate.
"The Fed and the cutting of rates is something that will
provide more substantial support," he said.
Gulf OPEC producers will keep their July oil production
within their OPEC target despite the current global supply cut
pact expiring at end of June, OPEC sources said, a signal that
the Gulf exporters are reluctant to boost supply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and
allies including Russia look set to extend a deal on cutting 1.2
million barrels per day of production. The coalition known as
OPEC+ agreed this week to meet on July 1-2, ending a month of
wrangling about the timing. <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
U.S. crude inventories, weekly changes since 2017 png https://tmsnrt.rs/2XlX17b
TECHNICALS-U.S. oil faces key resistance at $54.81
oil to break resistance at $63.12
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