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Investing.com -- TD Cowen said the 2026 midterms, now less than a year and a half away, could determine the balance of power in Congress and potentially cost Republicans control of the House.
“Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026 is in 440 days. However, it is probably the biggest policy gating function for legislation given the tight Congressional margins in a post-OBBB reality,” analysts at TD Cowen wrote.
The bank added that OBBB’s offsets and the debt limit will ultimately be shaped by the outcome.
The analysts explained that redistricting is a key variable, with four off-cycle races to watch this November: the New York City mayoral contest, gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, and a California ballot measure on redistricting.
TD Cowen noted that “Texas [is] looking to redraw shortly along w/ Indiana, which could give GOP 6 seats.” Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear a case on Oct. 15 concerning Louisiana’s map and majority-minority districts under the Voting Rights Act.
The Senate map, by contrast, appears structurally tougher for Democrats, according to the bank.
“Geography and math favor the GOP in the Senate midterms,” TD Cowen said, pointing out that Democrats would have to defend every current seat, pick up Maine and North Carolina, and then win two of five in Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Texas and Ohio, “a tall order.”
TD Cowen also flagged the possibility of party realignment, comparing the present moment to 1932, 1964/68 and 1980. “It is worth noting that — per the 2024 results — IL, NY & NJ are closer to going red than TX is to going blue,” the note said.