Deutsche Bank's June 2024 global financial market survey, conducted between July 17 and 22, found that a significant majority of respondents believe Donald Trump will win the upcoming US presidential election.
However, it is important to note that most of the polling took place before President Biden announced his withdrawal from the race.
According to Deutsche Bank, "The weighted average of respondents who see it as likely that Trump will be President for a second time jumped again, from 63% in March to 73% in July."
This marks a substantial increase from just 36% in June of the previous year. Deutsche Bank said more than half of the respondents (52%) now see the likelihood of a Trump victory as over 70%, up from a third in March.
The survey also delved into the expected economic impacts of a Trump presidency. A majority (62%) believe that a Trump administration and a Republican-controlled Congress would boost equities.
However, the bank said that respondents also foresee potential drawbacks: 74% expect higher fiscal deficits, 69% predict stronger inflation, and 67% anticipate higher Treasury yields.
The growth outlook under this scenario was less clear, according to Deutsche Bank, with 48% expecting higher growth and 15% predicting lower growth. Opinions on the dollar were similarly divided, with 42% forecasting a stronger dollar and 29% a weaker one.
These insights reflect a broader uncertainty in the market, influenced by recent political developments and economic trends. The next few months will be crucial in determining how these expectations play out as the election approaches and more data becomes available.