Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken Republican challenger and former President Donald Trump as the leading candidate in the race for the White House, according to the cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket.
For the first time since being officially confirmed as the Democratic candidate for the upcoming November election, Harris' betting odds have surged past Trump’s. Currently, Harris is favored with 52% of the bets, compared to Trump’s 46%, a marked change from earlier, when Trump was the overwhelming favorite among cryptocurrency bettors.
Just a month ago, Trump’s odds were at an all-time high of 72%. However, President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race and Harris' subsequent elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket have caused a dramatic shift in sentiment.
Polymarket, a platform built on Ethereum, has recently become one of the leading prediction markets for U.S. elections. The so-called decentralized prediction market allows users to bet on major global events using cryptocurrencies.
"A simple explanation of these Polymarket numbers: it would cost 52 cents to buy Harris “Yes’ shares and the payout would be 1$ if Harris gets elected," Bernstein analysts commented.
"Polymarket odds have proved more sensitive in picking cues (Biden debate, Trump firing incident) along the way, accurately predicting her nomination."
Republican supporters have dismissed the recent surge in Harris' odds as part of an initial "honeymoon phase," and have criticized the Polymarket odds as being susceptible to manipulation. They argue that the platform's odds can be influenced by significant financial inputs. For instance, a $500,000 buy can shift the odds by approximately 0.5%.
"Our interpretation is that the Polymarket odds are simply mirroring recent polls which have shown Harris gaining momentum since her nomination across states, e.g the 538 project average of polls has Harris now leading Trump by 2.4%," Bernstein analysts continued.
"Thus, currently the Polymarket odds are probably as good or bad as the election polls in predicting the election."
Similar trends are reflected in recent polls by The New York Times and Siena College, where Harris leads Trump by four percentage points in three crucial battleground states—Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. According to the surveys, conducted from August 5-9, Harris holds a 50% to 46% advantage over Trump among likely voters in these states.
The margin of sampling error in the polls was plus or minus 4.8 percentage points in Michigan, plus or minus 4.2 points in Pennsylvania, and plus or minus 4.3 points in Wisconsin, per the reports. A total of 1,973 likely voters were surveyed for these polls.
Harris' rise has reinvigorated a campaign that had struggled as Democrats questioned Biden's ability to defeat Trump or govern effectively if he were to win.
The United States’ support for Israel's war in Gaza, which has led to tens of thousands of deaths and a humanitarian crisis, sparked widespread protests and opposition against the Biden administration, particularly in Michigan, where some liberal, Muslim-American, and Arab-American groups voiced their dissent.
Approximately 200,000 people from these three states were "uncommitted" to supporting Biden during the Democratic primaries, largely due to his Gaza policy.
While Harris has made some strong public statements on Palestinian human rights, signaling a shift in tone, she has not displayed any substantive policy differences from Biden on the issue.