Unlock Premium Data: Up to 50% Off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Market consensus is for Trump to win US election: JPMorgan

Published 11/06/2024, 13:50
© Reuters.

JPMorgan analysts said in a note Tuesday that when it comes to the US election, the market's current consensus view is for Trump to win the White House, the GOP to win the Senate, and for Democrats to win the House.

Even so, the investment bank sees it as premature to predict the outcome, as many (70%) have high conviction that Congress will remain split.

"Investors remain sanguine about the market implications for the US elections," said JPMorgan. "Only 12% of survey respondents see the election as the biggest threat to markets."

When revealing their key takeaways from their election outlook analysts, JPMorgan said that a Trump win would result in a harder line on foreign policy, particularly with China, "with a view that 'America must win and dominate' through greater use of Executive Orders surrounding trade and investment."

In addition, they note that Trump could roll back clean energy and environmental policies, while a Trumo administration would include loyalists who are also experienced politicians rather than inexperienced outsiders like some first-term picks and could include a number of market-friendly familiar names.

"Trump 2.0 could result in a more contentious relationship between the US and European Union with adverse consequences for Ukraine," added JPMorgan.

Furthermore, the bank says that strength of governance and track record are the most important determinants for an election outcome, which "currently gives Biden an advantage."

However, they feel the outcome of the 2024 US presidential elections will come down to just thousands of votes in a few pivotal swing states, mirroring the close outcomes of 2016 and 2020.

While presidential debates could sway undecided voters, they also carry risks for both candidates, according to the bank. Meanwhile, it's noted that gen Z is a sizable voting bloc but also disillusioned, raising questions about voter turnout, and requiring specific policy appeals.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.