Investing.com -- Two national polls conducted after the debate showed a slight boost in Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead.
Specifically, the Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted on September 11 and 12, showed Harris leading by 5 percentage points (pp), up from the 4pp margin from the August 21-28th poll. Meanwhile, the Morning Consult showed a slight increase from 3pp to 6pp.
Similarly, a post-debate YouGov/Yahoo poll indicated Harris leading by 5 percentage points, compared to a tighter 1-point lead in their August poll. The ABC/Ipsos poll, however, showed no change.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the national polling average shows Harris with a 2.9-point lead, slightly up from 2.6 points before the debate on September 9. The RealClearPolitics average shows Harris ahead by 2 points, also a modest improvement from pre-debate numbers.
"Swing state polls mostly show statistical ties between Harris and Trump,” Citi strategists said in a Tuesday note.
“Harris’s average lead in swing states is narrow and has not changed much, but there has been very limited polling in the post-debate period."
Looking ahead, prediction markets indicate a tight race, with the RealClearPolitics average from prediction platforms showing Trump at 46.9 and Harris at 51.7.
Separately, a CNBC Fed Survey released Tuesday suggested that Harris is now seen as more likely than former President Donald Trump to win the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
The survey, conducted from Sept. 12 to Sept. 14, included 27 respondents consisting of investment strategists, economists, and fund managers.
Of the group, 48% expect Harris to win, while 41% believe Trump will emerge victorious. This represents a major change from the July survey, where 50% predicted a Trump victory, compared to just 37% for Harris. The poll was conducted shortly after the first debate between the two candidates.