Street Calls of the Week
Simply Good Foods (SMPL) reported Q4 EPS of $0.36, $0.08 better than the analyst estimate of $0.28. Revenue for the quarter came in at $274.16 million versus the consensus estimate of $261.1 million.
GUIDANCE:
In a challenging economic environment, the Company believes it is well positioned to generate solid net sales and Adjusted EBITDA growth in fiscal 2023. In fiscal 2023, the Company continues to expect supply chain costs to be higher. The list price increase effective late in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 and cost savings initiatives are in place to mostly mitigate these projected higher costs. The Company has made significant marketing and organizational investments in its business over the past few years and believes it should continue to result in the growth of its consumer base, distribution and market share gains. Therefore, the Company anticipates the following in fiscal 2023:
- Net sales to increase slightly greater than the 4-6% long-term algorithm. Included in the sales outlook is a headwind of almost 1 percentage point related to the previously discussed agreement to license the Quest frozen pizza business to Bellisio Foods;
- Gross margin will decline versus last year, although at a lower rate than fiscal 2022. Most of the decline will occur in the fiscal first quarter of 2023 as gross margin in the year ago period increased given the Company had yet to experience significant supply chain cost inflation;
- Full-year fiscal 2023 Adjusted EBITDA(4,6) to increase in line with the net sales growth rate; and,
- Adjusted Diluted EPS(3,6) to increase similarly to the Adjusted EBITDA(4,6) growth rate due to the Company’s expectation of higher interest expense from an increase in the variable interest rate related to its term loan debt, partially mitigated by fewer shares outstanding.