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Investing.com -- UBS has raised its global high-bandwidth memory (HBM) demand outlook for 2025 and 2026, citing stronger Nvidia and AMD procurement and expanding manufacturing capacity at TSMC.
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In a note on Thursday, analyst Nicolas Gaudois told investors the bank now expects HBM end-consumption bits to reach 17.3 billion Gb in 2025, up 1%, and 28.0 billion Gb in 2026, up 1.6%.
The analyst attributes the upward revision to “stronger Nvidia Rubin GPU units,” with 2026 forecasts increasing to 3.0 million units from 2.3 million, as well as higher AMD MI450 expectations tied to “the recent OpenAI commitment.”
The bank adds that “TSMC N3 utilization could be tight into 4Q26E,” which may prompt the foundry to pre-build GPUs earlier in 2026.
UBS also notes slightly lower assumptions for AWS’s custom chips but offsets this with higher memory-per-unit needs across new AI silicon.
The most important takeaway for investors, according to UBS, is the positive read-through for memory suppliers, particularly SK Hynix.
The bank says “upside to overall HBM demand should read positively for all HBM suppliers, but we believe more so for SK Hynix in particular,” pointing to its “highest gearing to HBM4 Rubin at Nvidia.”
UBS believes SK Hynix has already begun shipping HBM4 and expects it to hold around 70% of Nvidia’s HBM4 share next year, with HBM4 pricing carrying an approcimately 30% premium to HBM3E.
Gaudois stated that this should lift SK Hynix’s blended HBM ASP by about 13% YoY in 2026.
Alongside its Key Call Buy on SK Hynix, UBS also highlights Samsung Electronics as a beneficiary of improving DDR and NAND pricing, maintaining a Buy rating on the stock.