TSX lower after index logs fresh record closing high
Investing.com -- Cash once again dominated global flows in the past week, drawing $66.1 billion into money-market funds and bringing four-week inflows to $266 billion, according to Bank of America.
Bonds attracted $17.9 billion, gold posted its fourth-largest weekly inflow on record at $3.4 billion, and crypto gained $100 million.
Equity funds, by contrast, saw $9.9 billion in outflows in the week ended Sept. 10, according to EPFR Global data.
Global equity ETFs posted their first outflow in four months at $3.2 billion, while U.S. value funds took in $500 million, marking the first consecutive weekly inflows since November.
Municipals recorded a record inflow of $3.1 billion.
BofA also highlighted positioning among private clients, who oversee $4.1 trillion in assets. They currently hold 64.2% in equities, the highest since March 2022, 18.1% in bonds, the lowest since May 2022, and 10.6% in cash, the lowest since October 2021.
Allocations remain heavily skewed toward the Magnificent 7 at 16% of assets under management (AUM), compared with 4% for non-U.S. equities, 3% for Treasuries, and 0.4% for gold.
Strategists led by Michael Hartnett said 2025 marks a turning point, with the end of the dominant “Anything but Bonds” (ABB) and “Anywhere but China” (ABC) themes of recent years, and the beginning of a new “Anything but the Dollar” (ABD) trade.
They see weaker U.S. growth, fading exceptionalism, and structural drivers in Europe and Asia as catalysts.
To navigate an AI-driven bubble, Hartnett recommended a barbell approach, combining exposure to U.S. technology with allocations to bonds, international equities, and gold.
Bonds are expected to benefit from peaking nominal GDP growth and lower Treasury yields, while international stocks stand to gain from a weaker dollar, EU and Asia fiscal spending, and China tech.
Gold, meanwhile, is viewed as both a hedge against disorder and protection against dollar debasement, with the strategists noting that the bull market in the metal has shifted from “quiet” to “noisy” given heavy inflows.
On the policy and profits backdrop, Hartnett pointed to coming Federal Reserve rate cuts, which should compress credit spreads and lift bank stocks as well as rate-sensitive sectors such as small caps and homebuilders.
That optimism could prove misplaced if spreads widen, banks weaken, and small caps fail to sustain a breakout, which would suggest the Fed is cutting into economic deceleration rather than staying ahead of the curve, strategists said.
On profits, BofA cited a weaker labor market—payroll gains averaging just 64,000 over the past six months, the slowest since 2020—partly offset by a powerful wealth effect.
Household equity wealth among private clients rose by an estimated $3 trillion in the third quarter alone, following a $9 trillion increase last year.
By region, U.S. equities saw $19 billion in outflows in the past week, resuming a trend of weakness.
Europe posted a second week of inflows at $400 million, while emerging markets registered a fourth week of gains at $500 million.
Japan added $1 billion for the second straight week.