5 big analyst AI moves: Buyers of AMD stock weakness, Monday.com upgraded

Investing.com -- Here are the biggest analyst moves in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) for this week.

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TSMC’s U.S. shares could rebound in short term: Goldman

Goldman Sachs has introduced a proprietary TSMC ADR Premium Reversal Index (GSSRTSMR) to track movements in the premium between Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s (NYSE:TSM) American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) traded in the U.S. and its ordinary shares listed in Taiwan.

The bank noted that since 2023, this ADR premium has climbed sharply, peaking in the high-20% range. The gap is attributed to “ordinary shares being non-convertible into ADRs, alongside differing investor demand across regions.”

Additional drivers include “strong U.S. tech sentiment, U.S. dollar strength, higher relative liquidity, and divergent fund flows,” while risks stem from “valuations, domestic retail demand, and geopolitical risks.”

Goldman Sachs said ADR premium cycles typically last about three weeks and historically range between 10-20%, though this year they have shifted higher to 15-25%. Expansions are generally led by rising ADR prices, while contractions see ADR declines but steady local share prices.

To identify potential premium shifts, the bank developed a machine learning model incorporating more than 30 variables, from market technicals and macro factors to valuation, fund flows, and geopolitical sentiment.

The GSSRTSMR Index measures the likelihood of premium contraction versus expansion and shows a “-50% correlation with future premium changes,” with a reading of 0.3 seen as the optimal predictive threshold.

With the ADR premium near 20% and the index at -0.4, Goldman Sachs sees “a high likelihood of a short-term rebound (>3pp).”

Over the longer term, it said premium levels will be shaped by “AI-driven sentiment, sustained U.S. investor interest, and concentration risk among regional/Taiwan investors.”

BofA bullish on Oracle, lifts price target

This week, Bank of America (BofA) lifted its price target for Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) to $295 from $220 on Tuesday, pointing to stronger-than-expected capital spending plans from major tech firms and accelerating momentum in the artificial intelligence infrastructure cycle.

The new target suggests a 18% gain from Oracle’s last closing price.

“It is clear that demand for AI infrastructure is ramping,” BofA analysts said, citing recent guidance from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta (NASDAQ:META).

Microsoft projected over $30 billion in capital expenditures for the September quarter, “well ahead of our prior estimate for $23.5 billion,” while Meta raised its full-year capex forecast to $69 billion from BofA’s $67 billion projection.

“We view these as demand signals into a large addressable market for AI infrastructure,” the analysts noted, adding that the trend is likely to support growth for Oracle’s OCI platform.

BofA described Oracle as a key beneficiary of rising third-party AI infrastructure needs. “We are entering the next wave of adoption, which is likely to benefit key AI infrastructure vendors, including Oracle,” they said, referencing Microsoft’s latest earnings commentary.

The bank estimates the addressable market for agentic AI at $155 billion, calling it “8% additive to the current TAM for software.”

Even with the upgraded target, BofA kept a Neutral rating on the stock, citing uncertainty over how much the AI infrastructure buildout will translate into revenue.

“The bull/bear debate on the stock centers on how material the AI infrastructure opportunity is for Oracle and the magnitude of upside to topline growth targets,” the analysts said, pointing to the “nascent stage of the AI infrastructure build.”

Buy earnings sell-off in AMD, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) says

Wells Fargo said it sees the drop in Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:AMD) shares as a buying opportunity, maintaining its Overweight rating and $185 price target. The bank cited growing confidence in AMD’s data center GPU roadmap and solid momentum across client and server markets.

“[We] view 2Q25 results and 3Q25 guide as positive,” analysts wrote, pointing to increased conviction in the second-half ramp of the MI355X chip. They noted that third-quarter guidance excludes any MI308X sales to China, which are still pending licensing approval.

Second-quarter data center GPU revenue fell 13% from a year earlier to an estimated $915 million, driven largely by the China ban, but Wells Fargo said it remains optimistic about the ongoing product mix shift.

“We remain positive on the MI355X ramp ahead—diversifying customer base + higher ASPs,” the broker said.

AMD’s server CPU business delivered a 30% year-over-year revenue increase to about $2.2 billion, well ahead of Intel’s 4% growth in the comparable segment.

In client computing, revenue rose 69% to $3.62 billion, topping both Wells Fargo and Street forecasts, with client CPU revenue up 67% and average selling prices up 42%.

The company projected third-quarter revenue between $8.4 billion and $9.0 billion, implying a 28% gain at the midpoint from last year, and expects gross margins around 54%.

Wells Fargo analysts kept their long-term forecasts largely intact, reiterating that they remain “buyers on weakness.”

Analysts weigh in on SMCI stock after earnings-driven pullback

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) fell sharply on Wednesday after fiscal fourth-quarter results missed expectations, with analysts offering diverging views on the path ahead.

The AI server maker cited capital constraints and delayed customer orders as the main reasons for the revenue and earnings shortfall.

Gross margin was 9.5%, below guidance, and management expects margins to remain flat next quarter even as revenue rises.

SMCI guided first-quarter revenue of about $6.5 billion and full-year fiscal 2026 revenue of at least $33 billion, ahead of Wall Street’s $30 billion forecast.

Rosenblatt maintained a Buy rating, highlighting Supermicro’s speed to market with new products and leadership in liquid cooling with its DLC-2 technology, combined with its Data Center Building Block Solutions.

“We see Supermicro as the liquid cooling market leader with DLC-2. The combination of DCBBS and DLC-2 should result in gross margin expansion,” the firm wrote.

Barclays (LON:BARC) kept an Equal Weight rating, citing “uncertainty around AI server builds” and flat margin expectations despite the strong full-year guidance. It also noted production ramp challenges, but raised its price target to $45 from $29, saying the DCBBS offering could boost market share and profitability over time.

Bank of America reiterated its Underperform rating, warning of ongoing margin pressure as competition in the AI server market intensifies, with rivals like Dell (NYSE:DELL) gaining ground.

It also pointed to persistent customer delays as buyers wait for next-generation GPUs such as NVIDIA’s GB300.

“Working capital needs remain, we see FCF challenged,” BofA said, nudging its price target up to $37 from $35.

Baird upgrades Monday .com after stock pullback

Baird upgraded Monday.om (NASDAQ:MNDY) to Outperform on Wednesday, pointing to the recent share price drop and increasing confidence in the company’s leadership within an AI-driven software market.

“We are upgrading MNDY to Outperform as we see the company leveraging its early CWM lead to execute on this opportunity,” analysts wrote. Shares of the cloud-based work management platform have fallen 21% since July, while the S&P 500 has gained 2%.

Baird said the sell-off has created an appealing entry point, with the stock trading at about eight times next-twelve-month revenue and 38 times next-twelve-month free cash flow.

“We view current level as attractive,” the brokerage said.

The upgrade was based on three factors: “1) we see potential for MNDY to leverage early leadership in CWM into a broader platform-driven company delivering GenAI value, 2) we view shares as under-owned and the combination of superior growth and FCF margins as attractive, and 3) we view current level as attractive.”

Baird analysts noted that, unlike rivals, “MNDY has ‘productized’ its platform in a way that delivers value around use-cases and buying centers.” The firm added that investor interest remains high and said it expects “solid Q2 results.”

Looking ahead, Baird pointed to upcoming potential catalysts.

“We expect solid Q2 results and like the catalyst path into the September user conference and investor day,” analysts said.

Monday.com will report earnings on August 11.