Stock market today: S&P 500 hits fresh record close on stronger economic growth
Investing.com -- Apple’s App Store revenue grew approximately 12% year-over-year (YoY) in June on a reported basis, according to UBS analysis of Sensor Tower data.
The growth was flat compared to May but benefited from a foreign exchange tailwind of about 200 basis points due to a weaker U.S. dollar.
On a foreign exchange-neutral (FXN) basis, App Store revenue growth slowed by roughly 70 basis points month-over-month to around 10%. UBS notes that “growth was fairly consistent between the U.S. (~12%) and Rest-of-World (ROW) (~13%) on a reported basis,” though underlying comparisons differed significantly.
In regional terms, the U.S. App Store grew 11% in the June quarter, about 100 basis points faster than the March quarter.
ROW revenue was also up 12% on a reported basis, around 250 basis points higher than the prior quarter. However, excluding currency effects, ROW growth was flat at 10%.
UBS sees no change to its June-quarter forecast for Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Services revenue, which is expected to grow about 11%, but says “bias is slightly higher given FX.”
“Considering that FX should be at least a 100 bps smaller headwind than previously expected, we believe that there is upside risk to our ’Services’ revenue estimate,” UBS’ report adds.
For example, if growth runs about one point above the current ~11% forecast, Services revenue could reach $27.1 billion versus the $26.9 billion estimate, adding roughly a penny to the $1.40 EPS forecast, the bank notes.
The EU’s Digital Markets Act, which allows developers to distribute apps outside the App Store, appears to have had limited effect so far.
“Sensor Tower data suggests the impact has been relatively muted in the EU thus far, with growth run rating in the mid-20s% since Jan-24,” UBS highlighted.
Given that the EU accounts for a high-single-digit share of global App Store revenue, compared to about one-third from the U.S., UBS views the overall risk to revenue as “relatively limited” despite recent fee adjustments.
UBS maintained a Neutral stance on Apple stock, with a 12-month price target of $210, in line with its current trading level.