Street Calls of the Week
Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings has revised its outlook on AutoCanada Inc. to stable from negative, citing effective restructuring efforts that have lowered the company’s leverage.
The Canadian auto retailer has made significant progress on its transformation plan announced late last year, initially targeting C$100 million in annualized operational expense savings by the end of 2025, which has since been increased to C$115 million.
AutoCanada’s cost-cutting initiatives focus on staffing reductions, improved store efficiencies, productivity gains, and operations consolidation to decrease labor and overhead costs. S&P estimates these measures will boost adjusted EBITDA by at least C$30 million this year (after accounting for C$30 million in restructuring costs) and at least C$70 million annually thereafter, representing a 130-150 basis point margin improvement.
The rating agency expects AutoCanada to reduce debt by at least C$100 million in 2025, primarily from proceeds from selling its 17 U.S. franchises that were reclassified as discontinued operations in 2024, along with certain underperforming Canadian locations. The company has already entered agreements to sell 13 of these franchises for approximately C$83 million.
S&P forecasts AutoCanada’s adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio will improve to 4.6x in 2025, down from 6.8x in 2024, with further deleveraging expected as adjusted EBITDA margins expand to the low 4% range. This improvement could potentially close the profitability gap with U.S. peers including AutoNation, Group 1, and Sonic Automotive.
The rating agency expects AutoCanada to maintain adjusted debt to EBITDA in the 4x-5x range over the next few years, supported by improving profitability from operational initiatives while maintaining steady debt levels beyond 2025.
S&P anticipates the company will resume small acquisitions of less than C$20 million annually, funded primarily with free operating cash flow and focused on independent dealers and collision centers in Canada.
The stable outlook reflects S&P’s expectation that AutoCanada will generate adjusted debt to EBITDA of 4x-5x over the next few years, with gradually improving EBITDA margins as the company continues executing its transformation plan.
A downgrade could occur within the next 12 months if adjusted debt to EBITDA is sustained above 5x, while an upgrade is possible if the ratio remains well below 4x supported by a steady margin profile.
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