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Investing.com -- Barclays (LON:BARC) has lowered its price target on Moncler (BIT:MONC) to €61 from €63, citing signs of slowing momentum in the Moncler brand and a weaker outlook for the second quarter.
The adjustment follows updated forecasts ahead of Moncler’s H1 2025 results, due July 23 after market close.
In the note, Barclays analysts project group organic growth of +1% at constant foreign exchange rates (cFX) in Q2, with the Moncler brand expected to decline -1% cFX.
The DTC channel is forecast to be flat year over year, while wholesale is seen dropping -8% cFX, in line with the company’s guidance of a high single-digit decline for the full year.
The revised outlook follows a resilient Q1 for Moncler, where the DTC channel grew +4% cFX.
However, Barclays flags that performance was driven by a strong January, with growth slowing through the quarter and ending with a weaker March.
By region, Europe is expected to decline -3% cFX in Q2, while Asia is forecast to be flat, down from +6% cFX in Q1.
The Americas are projected to fall -2% cFX. Barclays attributes the deceleration to softer tourist flows, particularly from Chinese and American consumers, affected by adverse FX movements and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
Barclays expects Stone Island to grow +9% cFX in Q2, rebounding from a -5% cFX decline in Q1.
The wholesale channel is projected to rise +10% cFX due to a positive timing effect, while DTC growth is also forecast at +9% cFX but seen slowing sequentially.
On margins, Barclays anticipates Moncler’s H1 EBIT margin to fall -280 basis points year over year to 18.2%, citing operating deleverage, a higher advertising and promotion spending ratio of 10% versus 8% in H1 2024, and the absence of a €7.5 million one-off gain from the previous year. The FY25 EBIT margin estimate has been reduced to 29.0% from 29.4%.
As a result, Barclays has cut its FY25 adjusted earnings per share forecast by -5%. Despite the revisions, the brokerage maintains an "equal weight" rating on the stock, pointing to a lack of near-term catalysts to support upside.