Barclays highlights 3Q25 U.K. stock ideas: five "overweights," one "equal weight"

Inveting.com -- Barclays (LON:BARC) has released its U.K. equity strategy for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting five “overweight-rated” stocks and one “equal weight,” citing near-term catalysts and valuation upside.

The average potential return across the "overweight" picks is 24%, according to the bank’s price targets.

AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) tops the list with an expected upside of 32%. Barclays sees a key catalyst in the Phase 3 BaxHTN trial of baxdrostat, a potential treatment for uncontrolled hypertension. 

The drug has demonstrated superior pharmacokinetic properties and aldosterone reduction compared with competitors. 

The brokerage values the asset at GBp 259 per share, contributing to a price target of £140 for the stock, which trades at 15.4x 2025 earnings and 11.8x 2027 earnings.

Bellway (LON:BWY) is expected to deliver a 28% upside ahead of its October full-year results. Barclays anticipates a strategic shift from growth to return-focused capital allocation. 

The brokerage projects return on invested capital to rise by 400bps to 8% by 2028, driven by a reduced landbank and improved cash generation. 

The stock trades at 15.4x forward P/E for 2025 and is forecast to generate a net cash position of £652m by 2028.

Anglo American (JO:AGLJ), with a 21% upside, is undergoing restructuring after the recent demerger of Valterra. Barclays expects copper to drive 70% of group EBITDA by 2028–29. 

The analysts notes that capex is forecast to fall by over 40% between 2025 and 2027, improving returns and capital efficiency. The stock trades at 6.6x EV/EBITDA for 2025 and 4.5x for 2027.

Unilever (LON:ULVR), which Barclays sees rising 20%, reports first-half results on July 31.

The brokerage expects a recovery in Asia and an acceleration in organic growth in the second half, citing effective pricing and marketing initiatives.

Barclays forecasts free cash flow to grow at 4.9% CAGR through 2027, with an equity FCF yield rising to 6.1% in that year. The stock trades at 17.8x 2025 earnings.

Lloyds Banking Group (LON:LLOY) has an 18% expected upside. A ruling from the U.K. Supreme Court on motor finance commissions could unlock provision releases, potentially narrowing Lloyds’ valuation discount. 

Barclays estimates EPS growth of 60% from 2025 to 2027, supported by rising income and capital distributions totaling over 40% of market cap. 

The bank assigns a price target of 90p, with the stock trading at 7.5x 2026 earnings and 6.3x 2027 earnings.

SEGRO, rated “equal weight,” offers 6% upside. Barclays remains cautious ahead of the July 31 half-year results, citing weak leasing performance and the potential for reduced capital expenditure.

The company’s projected 3% EPS CAGR lags peers, and it trades at 18.6x 2025 P/E.