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Investing.com -- Barclays (LON:BARC) has raised its forecast for euro area inflation in 2025, now expecting headline consumer prices to average 2.1% compared with the 2% projection it published in July, in a note dated Thursday.
The revision reflects firmer outcomes for food and energy costs in recent data, while the bank kept its core inflation estimate unchanged at 2.3% for the year.
The latest figures from Eurostat showed euro area HICP inflation at 2% year over year in July, with core inflation steady at 2.3%.
Barclays noted that the modest acceleration in headline inflation was driven by higher food, alcohol and tobacco prices, along with a slower decline in energy costs.
Core inflation remained stable as softer services prices were offset by an increase in core goods inflation, which the bank attributed largely to seasonal factors such as weaker summer sales for clothing and footwear.
In its updated outlook, Barclays said it expects energy to stay in deflation territory through much of the forecast horizon, despite temporary increases in July from fuel and electricity prices.
Food and tobacco inflation, however, are projected to remain above 3% for some time, supported by upstream food price trends and survey-based indicators of selling price expectations. Services inflation is seen as broadly stable before easing slightly in 2026.
For 2026, Barclays left its headline inflation forecast unchanged at 1.7% and core inflation at 1.8%.
The bank’s projections remain lower than market pricing for most of 2025 but above expectations by the end of the year.
It now anticipates euro area HICP inflation excluding tobacco to stand at 1.99% in August 2025, 1.87% in December 2025 and 1.72% in December 2026.