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Investing.com -- RBC Capital Markets analysts said Hollywood Bowl Group (LON:BOWL) presents a long-term buying opportunity despite the recent hit to trading caused by adverse weather.
In a note dated Friday, analysts said the recent sell-off following the group’s half-year results was disproportionate and failed to reflect the company’s underlying performance and outlook.
They pointed to strong spending growth per game and a secure pipeline of new sites through fiscal 2027.
The analysts acknowledged that warmer-than-average spring weather in the United Kingdom (TADAWUL:4280), the hottest on record, had suppressed like-for-like volume growth.
However, they said this was not indicative of structural issues within the business. They cited strong customer volumes over the latest wetter UK bank holiday as a sign that demand remains solid when weather conditions normalize.
"Weather is a reason for lower (and higher) LFL volume growth in indoor leisure," the analysts said, noting that spring conditions had hurt the UK market while heavy snowfall disrupted business in Toronto.
Still, spend per game in the UK grew 6.3%, with bowling and amusement spend up 5.9% and 11.6%, respectively. Food and drink sales were less impressive, rising just 1.1%.
Hollywood Bowl’s use of dynamic pricing and increased VIP lane uptake helped drive this spending.
The company also maintained a competitive value proposition, with a typical family of four able to bowl for £26 during off-peak periods, according to the report.
In Canada, the group’s two newest sites are performing ahead of expectations, which RBC described as a positive indicator for the broader rollout strategy. The analysts highlighted that Canadian revenue is expected to grow at a faster pace than in the UK over the coming years, although the UK remains the primary contributor to total growth.
RBC reduced its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 by 0.7% each, citing a mix shift in revenue and FX headwinds, but left its valuation multiple unchanged.
The brokerage continues to value the group at 9.5x FY2026 estimated EV/EBITDA, leading to a revised price target of 410p, down from 415p.
Hollywood Bowl was trading at 265.5p at the time of the report, implying a 59% upside to RBC’s target. The analysts maintained their "Outperform" rating.
The brokerage also noted that the company’s balance sheet remains strong. Despite plans to return £83 million to shareholders and invest £70 million in capital expenditure over two years, RBC still forecasts net cash of £10.3 million by FY2026.
Risks highlighted in the report include intensifying competition in the UK, rising labor costs, potential deterioration in Canadian consumer sentiment, and delays in new site openings.
Despite these, RBC analysts said the fundamentals remain intact. “We focus on the controllables,” they said, calling current valuation levels a compelling entry point for long-term investors.