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Investing.com -- Berenberg upgraded Geberit (SIX:GEBN) shares to Buy from Hold on Wednesday and lifted the price target to CHF604, up from CHF511.
The company’s shares rose more than 2% in Zurich trading.
For factors driving the upgrade, the investment bank cited Geberit’s successful growth strategy, which has helped the company to outpace the European building construction market by 3.6 percentage points (pp) since 2012.
“We see hardly any reason why the company should not also succeed in the future given the various initiatives that management has launched,” analysts Patrick Laager and Lucas Glemser said in a note.
Signs of recovery in the European construction industry support the positive outlook. Euroconstruct forecasts that overall demand in the sector could stabilize by 2025, with building construction expected to be flat that year after a 3.3% decline in 2024.
Growth is projected to resume in 2026 and 2027, with increases of 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. This aligns with the outlook from Berenberg’s Construction team.
Over the past decade, Geberit has consistently improved its profitability, with an EBITDA margin of 26.7% in 2015. Berenberg forecasts that Geberit’s profitability will remain at the upper end of its guided margin range of 28-30% in the coming years.
The company’s disciplined approach to net working capital has resulted in robust cash generation, with an expected operating free cash flow over gross investments (CROIC) of around 21% for the period from 2025 to 2027.
Furthermore, Berenberg highlighted Geberit’s expansion into emerging markets, which it sees as a further growth impetus.
The company, historically focused on the DACH region and Europe, aims to grow its business in emerging markets like India, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Management anticipates revenues from these markets to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% from 2023 to 2028.
Geberit’s strategy includes deploying advanced technology to outgrow the sanitary market by about 3 percentage points over the cycle.
According to the analysts, the company’s initiatives in piping systems and water closets (WCs), expansion into shower toilets, and the introduction of the innovative FlowFit press supply piping system are expected to help gain market share.