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Investing.com -- BMO Capital Markets downgraded CSX Corp (NASDAQ:CSX) to Market Perform from Outperform, saying the recent 20% rally in the rail operator’s stock has largely priced in potential takeover speculation, leaving a more balanced risk-reward profile.
The downgrade comes as merger chatter across the North American rail sector has fueled major gains in names seen as possible targets.
CSX has been among the biggest beneficiaries, with shares jumping since speculation of a possible transcontinental deal emerged in May.
BMO said a merger between CSX and BNSF would be the best-case strategic outcome offering greater regulatory approval odds and meaningful synergies but even under that scenario, the implied upside from current levels is only about 6%.
The firm warned that many other potential outcomes carry downside risk, including no deal at all or a structure involving other railroads where synergies could be lower or terms less favorable.
The bank noted there is significant uncertainty over the structure, valuation and financing terms of any future deal, unlike the clearer reference provided by Union Pacific’s bid for Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) earlier this year.
While M&A could be a catalyst, much of that optionality is already reflected in CSX’s valuation, according to BMO analysts. They now favors Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) as a cleaner play on rail consolidation with less downside if no second deal materializes.
BMO kept its $38 price target and earnings estimates unchanged for CSX, but said shares now reflect a more fully valued position relative to the potential merger scenarios in play.