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Investing.com -- BofA Securities analyst Justin Post has highlighted the "OpenAI dilemma" facing major tech companies, noting that OpenAI now functions as both a valuable cloud customer and a potential competitor for advertising and eCommerce revenue.
In a recent report, Post outlined how OpenAI’s growing demand for computing power has led to significant multi-year deals with major cloud providers. The company signed agreements with Google in the third quarter (contributing to Google’s $49 billion quarterly backlog growth) and with Amazon in the fourth quarter ($38 billion), in addition to existing partnerships with Microsoft and Oracle.
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Post identified three likely reasons tech giants are adding OpenAI as a cloud customer: the importance of driving cloud AI scale, the potential for deeper partnerships to integrate OpenAI’s models onto cloud platforms, and the manageable exposure representing less than 10% of total cloud revenues.
However, the analyst also pointed out competitive concerns, as OpenAI is capturing a growing share of AI workloads and operates the largest AI platform through ChatGPT. The company is expected to build advertising and transaction platforms in 2026 while competing for social advertising and subscription spending. OpenAI is targeting $41 billion in new product revenue by 2030, which would represent approximately 8% of BofA’s 2030 advertising and eCommerce commission industry forecasts.
Despite these concerns, Post suggested a potential "goldilocks scenario" where AI-driven market expansion creates room for new major players without significant disruption to existing tech giants. He noted that Google’s query volumes and revenue have been less affected by ChatGPT than initially feared.
Post maintained Buy ratings on Google, citing the potential "Gemini 3 halo effect on search," and Amazon, where he expects AWS acceleration in the first quarter.
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