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Investing.com -- Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) have observed that financial conditions have tightened compared to a year ago, citing higher interest rates, increased risk, and the impact of the tax over financial transactions (IOF) decree. Despite these factors, they also noted that current financial conditions are supported by lower oil prices, a depreciated US dollar, and strong equity markets.
The team at BofA anticipates that economic growth will slow down in 2025, which could lead to the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) initiating a cycle of interest rate cuts starting in December 2025. This projection is based on the interplay between the tightening factors and the elements contributing to looser financial conditions at present.
The higher rates over the past 12 months have been part of the tightening financial landscape, while the IOF decree has added an additional layer of complexity to financial transactions. In contrast, the decline in oil prices and the weaker US dollar have provided some relief, potentially easing the cost pressures associated with imports and energy.
The booming equity markets are another positive sign, suggesting investor confidence and a favorable environment for business financing and growth. However, the BofA team expects that the pace of economic expansion will lose momentum as we approach 2025, setting the stage for a policy shift by the BCB.
In conclusion, while the current financial conditions reflect a mix of tightening and loosening factors, BofA’s outlook suggests that the BCB may find room to reduce interest rates by the end of 2025, in response to the anticipated economic deceleration.
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